Will Michigan St. qualify for the men's Semifinals
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$19
15 contracts
Closes
May 2, 2027
358 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Duke qualify for the men's
Cluster 2
Will UConn qualify for the men's Round
Cluster 3
Will Tennessee qualify for the men's Round of 16
Will Tennessee qualify for the men's Round of 16?: Tennessee
KXMARMADROUND-27R16-TENN
Cluster 4
Will Michigan qualify for the men's Championship Game
Will Michigan qualify for the men's Championship Game?: Michigan
KXMARMADROUND-27T2-MICH
Cluster 5
Will Florida qualify for the men's Championship Game
Will Florida qualify for the men's Championship Game?: Florida
KXMARMADROUND-27T2-FLA
Cluster 6
Will Texas qualify for the men's Round of 32
Will Texas qualify for the men's Round of 32?: Texas
KXMARMADROUND-27R32-TEX
Cluster 7
Will Houston qualify for the men's Championship Game
Will Houston qualify for the men's Championship Game?: Houston
KXMARMADROUND-27T2-HOU
Cluster 8
Will Kansas qualify for the men's Championship Game
Will Kansas qualify for the men's Championship Game?: Kansas
KXMARMADROUND-27T2-KU
Cluster 9
Will Iowa St. qualify for the men's Championship Game
Will Iowa St. qualify for the men's Championship Game?: Iowa St.
KXMARMADROUND-27T2-ISU
Cluster 10
Will Arizona qualify for the men's Round of 8
Will Arizona qualify for the men's Round of 8?: Arizona
KXMARMADROUND-27R8-ARIZ
Cluster 11
Will Purdue qualify for the men's Round of 8
Will Purdue qualify for the men's Round of 8?: Purdue
KXMARMADROUND-27R8-PUR
Cluster 12
Will St. John's qualify for the men's Round of 32
Will St. John's qualify for the men's Round of 32?: St. John's
KXMARMADROUND-27R32-SJU
Cluster 13
Will Villanova qualify for the men's Round of 32
Will Villanova qualify for the men's Round of 32?: Villanova
KXMARMADROUND-27R32-VILL
Analysis
This represents a 12% chance that Michigan State's men's basketball team will advance to the NCAA Tournament Semifinals. The low probability reflects the team's current standing relative to historical tournament performance and seeding patterns. Key drivers include the team's regular season record, tournament seeding position, and the relative strength of potential matchups in early rounds. The primary uncertainty will resolve through the NCAA Tournament selection process and subsequent games, with the most significant catalyst being the team's performance in the Big Ten Conference Tournament and the NCAA Tournament bracket reveal, typically occurring in early-to-mid March annually. Historical data shows that teams with lower seeds and weaker conference records rarely advance deep into tournament play, which largely explains the modest probability assessment.
- ›Current 12% probability implies expectations consistent with mid-to-late tournament seeding rather than high seed positioning
- ›Teams advancing to semifinals typically show strong regular season records and favorable tournament matchups in earlier rounds
- ›Michigan State's tournament path depends on specific bracket placement and opponent quality in rounds leading to semifinals
- ›Conference tournament performance and final regular season standings directly influence NCAA Tournament seeding and advancement likelihood
- ›Historical tournament data indicates single-elimination format makes deeper runs progressively less probable for lower-seeded teams
What moved the line
- May 6Tennessee↓31pp34→3¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Tennessee↓16pp50→34¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Texas↑14pp11→25¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Michigan↑12pp14→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Florida↑9pp16→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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