Will Michigan St. qualify for the men's Semifinals
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$78
11 contracts
Closes
May 2, 2027
223 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Arkansas qualify for the men's Championship Game
Will Arkansas qualify for the men's Championship Game?: Arkansas
KXMARMADROUND-27T2-ARK
Cluster 2
Will Texas qualify for the men's Round of 16
Will Texas qualify for the men's Round of 16?: Texas
KXMARMADROUND-27R16-TEX
Cluster 3
Will UConn qualify for the men's Championship Game
Will UConn qualify for the men's Championship Game?: UConn
KXMARMADROUND-27T2-CONN
Cluster 4
Will Loyola Chicago qualify for the men's Championship Game
Will Loyola Chicago qualify for the men's Championship Game?: Loyola Chicago
KXMARMADROUND-27T2-L-IL
Cluster 5
Will Duke qualify for the men's Championship Game
Will Duke qualify for the men's Championship Game?: Duke
KXMARMADROUND-27T2-DUKE
Cluster 6
Will BYU qualify for the men's Championship Game
Will BYU qualify for the men's Championship Game?: BYU
KXMARMADROUND-27T2-BYU
Cluster 7
Will Texas Tech qualify for the men's Championship Game
Will Texas Tech qualify for the men's Championship Game?: Texas Tech
KXMARMADROUND-27T2-TTU
Cluster 8
Will Michigan qualify for the men's Championship Game
Will Michigan qualify for the men's Championship Game?: Michigan
KXMARMADROUND-27T2-MICH
Cluster 9
Will Gonzaga qualify for the men's Championship Game
Will Gonzaga qualify for the men's Championship Game?: Gonzaga
KXMARMADROUND-27T2-GONZ
Cluster 10
Will Florida qualify for the men's Championship Game
Will Florida qualify for the men's Championship Game?: Florida
KXMARMADROUND-27T2-FLA
Cluster 11
Will Tennessee qualify for the men's Championship Game
Will Tennessee qualify for the men's Championship Game?: Tennessee
KXMARMADROUND-27T2-TENN
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Michigan State has a 14% chance of reaching the men's basketball semifinals. The relatively low probability suggests traders view the Spartans as unlikely to advance through tournament stages, particularly compared to higher-seeded or more successful programs. Key drivers of this level include Michigan State's current strength relative to tournament competition and historical tournament performance. The probability will shift based on regular season results, tournament seeding announcements, and head-to-head matchups as they occur. The main resolution point comes when the NCAA tournament reaches the semifinal stage, at which time it will be definitively determined whether Michigan State competed in that round.
- ›Michigan State's regular season win-loss record and strength of schedule relative to other tournament contenders
- ›Tournament seeding position, which determines bracket placement and early round matchup difficulty
- ›Head-to-head performance records against likely tournament opponents in the same region
- ›Current player roster composition and injury status entering tournament play
- ›Historical tournament advancement rates for Michigan State in recent years compared to peer programs
What moved the line
- Sep 17Michigan↑5pp7→12¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Duke↑3pp11→14¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%last 97% · 2d
- Will Barack Obama endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026last 83% · 3d
- Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 8d
- Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 8d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25last 84% · 10d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.