Will Meta (META) close above ___ end of April?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 3 contracts. Kalshi at 12%, Polymarket at 13%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
1 contract
Polymarket
13%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
1pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$108
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Will MetaMask launch a token by ___” vs “Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will MetaMask launch a token by ___
Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ?: June 30
0x44878f…78a9
Cluster 2
Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch
Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B
0xb0dafd…cee8
Cluster 3
will the gold close price be above 5013.99 usd/t.oz on may 29, 2026 at 5:00 pm edt
What moved the line
- May 2$1B↓4pp20→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 3above $5013.99↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.