MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 57% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 42%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Eric Chung
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
42¢
Christina Hines
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 4, 2026
87 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
The Democratic primary for Michigan's 10th Congressional District currently shows the frontrunner with a 54% probability of winning, indicating a competitive race with meaningful uncertainty. The outcome depends heavily on candidate fundraising, organizational capacity, and base mobilization in what appears to be an open or contested seat. Recent polling data, endorsement patterns, and voter turnout models would be primary drivers of probability shifts. The primary election date will ultimately resolve this market, with performance indicators like debate participation, campaign spending reports, and local media coverage serving as near-term signals. The 19-point gap between the leader and runner-up suggests the field is differentiated but not decided.
- ›Frontrunner holds 54% while runner-up stands at 35%, indicating a competitive two-candidate race with 11% split among other candidates
- ›Campaign finance reports and spending velocity would shift probabilities materially, particularly if trailing candidates consolidate resources or suddenly gain donor momentum
- ›Local voter registration trends and early voting patterns in the district would provide concrete data on turnout composition favoring different candidates
- ›Endorsement from established party figures or labor organizations could move probabilities by reflecting institutional preference signals
- ›Primary election date outcome is the sole resolution mechanism, making pre-election polling and debate performance the key probability movers
What moved the line
- May 3Christina Hines↑11pp30→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Eric Chung↓5pp47→42¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Christina Hines↓5pp41→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Christina Hines↓4pp34→30¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.