Mirassol FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol - More Markets
Leader sits at 76% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 53%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
53¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$958
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Mirassol FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol - More Markets
Mirassol FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol - More Markets: Mirassol FC (-1.5)
0xab18cc…700a
Mirassol FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol - More Markets: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-2.5)
0xfa3e0b…fd6e
Mirassol FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x4623ed…f0dd
Mirassol FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol - More Markets: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)
0xcc2a67…b5b4
Mirassol FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x90e1de…ad29
Mirassol FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xb8aa99…9ea4
Mirassol FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5e8979…e3e5
Mirassol FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xb4f261…2aea
Mirassol FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol - More Markets: Mirassol FC (-2.5)
0x8f2e13…c878
Analysis
This represents a 77% probability that a Mirassol FC versus Associação Chapecoense de Futebol match will have more than 1.5 total goals scored. The probability reflects expectations about both teams' offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities. The level is driven by typical goal frequencies in Brazilian football at this tier and how each squad has performed recently—Mirassol's attacking potency versus Chapecoense's defensive record would be primary considerations. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty; the outcome depends on actual team performance, tactical adjustments, and in-game circumstances when the fixture is played. Light trading volume ($133 in 24-hour volume on the leading contract) suggests modest market participation, though the pricing is internally consistent across related spread contracts. Traders are moderately confident in an over-1.5-goal result rather than viewing it as a toss-up.
- ›Mirassol FC's recent goal-scoring rate and average goals-per-match output in the current season
- ›Associação Chapecoense de Futebol's defensive record and goals-conceded average over recent fixtures
- ›Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these two clubs if available
- ›Low trading volume ($133 24h vol on top contract) indicates limited market conviction and potential pricing inefficiency
- ›Spread contract pricing shows 37¢ for Mirassol -1.5 and 30¢ for O/U 3.5, consistent with expectations of 2–3 total goals
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.