MLB The Show 27
Leader sits at 52% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Cover Athlete: Shohei Ohtani
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
52¢
Cover Athlete: Ben Rice
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Polymarket
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Aaron Judge
0x2102b0…b85f
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Nick Kurtz
0xab485e…1e8a
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Francisco Lindor
0x9c040b…e276
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Junior Caminero
0x9832cf…6376
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Jazz Chisholm
0x9826d2…5eea
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Bryce Harper
0x96d4de…c1d8
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Ben Rice
0x8c0451…e483
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Paul Skenes
0x8b3bb5…3a9c
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Kyle Schwarber
0x81de0b…3f0b
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Chris Sale
0x7aa0c4…c21d
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Tarik Skubal
0x77bdd6…96e4
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Juan Soto
0x6f3bc7…eee9
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Matt Olson
0x5a3bbb…81b5
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Roman Anthony
0x509e72…9e8e
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Mason Miller
0x498aa7…e520
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Bryan Woo
0x4664d1…b5aa
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Elly De La Cruz
0x398be7…2979
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Jordan Walker
0x2cfbfe…1f7b
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Bobby Witt Jr.
0x277db9…38f7
MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Shohei Ohtani
0x21427d…b0cf
Analysis
This represents the probability that a specific player will be selected as the cover athlete for MLB The Show 27, based on aggregated market prices from 20 prediction contracts. The current 57% leader reflects market expectations about which player Sony San Diego Studio will choose, competing against Aaron Judge, Elly De La Cruz, Bryan Woo, and Matt Olson. Resolution depends on Sony's official announcement of the cover athlete, typically made during the game's marketing cycle before launch. The contracts show relatively tight clustering between top candidates (50-56 cents), indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus. Volume is currently zero, suggesting the market is in a quiet period before any official reveals or news breaks.
- ›Official cover athlete announcement from Sony San Diego Studio has not yet been made and represents the sole resolution event
- ›Market prices cluster tightly (50-56 cents across five candidates), indicating no dominant favorite and substantial residual uncertainty
- ›Recent player performance, injury status, and marketability during the 2026 season could influence Sony's selection criteria
- ›Shohei Ohtani and Matt Olson both trade at 56 cents, tied as co-leaders, suggesting market sees them as competitive alternatives
- ›Zero 24-hour volume indicates minimal recent trading activity, so current prices may not reflect very recent developments in player news or status
What moved the line
- Jun 17Cover Athlete: Shohei Ohtani↑4pp49→53¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 17Cover Athlete: Bryan Woo↑4pp48→52¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 17Cover Athlete: Matt Olson↑4pp48→52¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 17Cover Athlete: Jazz Chisholm↑3pp49→52¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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