Will Josh Hader win AL Reliever of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
18 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
213 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Will Robert” vs “Will Cade Smith win AL Reliever of the Year”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Robert
Cluster 2
Will Cade Smith win AL Reliever of the Year
Will Cade Smith win AL Reliever of the Year?: Cade Smith
KXMLBALRELOTY-26-CSMI
Cluster 3
Will Aroldis Chapman win AL Reliever of the Year
Will Aroldis Chapman win AL Reliever of the Year?: Aroldis Chapman
KXMLBALRELOTY-26-ACHA
Cluster 4
Will Carlos Estevez win AL Reliever of the Year
Will Carlos Estevez win AL Reliever of the Year?: Carlos Estevez
KXMLBALRELOTY-26-CEST
Cluster 5
Will Andres Muñoz win AL Reliever of the Year
Will Andres Muñoz win AL Reliever of the Year?: Andres Muñoz
KXMLBALRELOTY-26-AMUN
Cluster 6
Will Jeff Hoffman win AL Reliever of the Year
Will Jeff Hoffman win AL Reliever of the Year?: Jeff Hoffman
KXMLBALRELOTY-26-JHOF
Cluster 7
Will Josh Hader win AL Reliever of the Year
Will Josh Hader win AL Reliever of the Year?: Josh Hader
KXMLBALRELOTY-26-JHAD
Cluster 8
Will David Bednar win AL Reliever of the Year
Will David Bednar win AL Reliever of the Year?: David Bednar
KXMLBALRELOTY-26-DBED
Cluster 9
Will Kyle Finnegan win AL Reliever of the Year
Will Kyle Finnegan win AL Reliever of the Year?: Kyle Finnegan
KXMLBALRELOTY-26-KFIN
Cluster 10
Will Kenley Jansen win AL Reliever of the Year
Will Kenley Jansen win AL Reliever of the Year?: Kenley Jansen
KXMLBALRELOTY-26-KJAN
Cluster 11
Will Will Vest win AL Reliever of the Year
Will Will Vest win AL Reliever of the Year?: Will Vest
KXMLBALRELOTY-26-WVES
Cluster 12
Will Kirby Yates win AL Reliever of the Year
Will Kirby Yates win AL Reliever of the Year?: Kirby Yates
KXMLBALRELOTY-26-KYAT
Cluster 13
Will Taylor Rogers win AL Reliever of the Year
Will Taylor Rogers win AL Reliever of the Year?: Taylor Rogers
KXMLBALRELOTY-26-TROD
Cluster 14
Will Jordan Leasure win AL Reliever of the Year
Will Jordan Leasure win AL Reliever of the Year?: Jordan Leasure
KXMLBALRELOTY-26-JLEA
Cluster 15
Will Mark Leiter Jr. win AL Reliever of the Year
Will Mark Leiter Jr. win AL Reliever of the Year?: Mark Leiter Jr.
KXMLBALRELOTY-26-MLEI
Cluster 16
Will Bryan Abreu win AL Reliever of the Year
Will Bryan Abreu win AL Reliever of the Year?: Bryan Abreu
KXMLBALRELOTY-26-BABR
Cluster 17
Will Grant Taylor win AL Reliever of the Year
Will Grant Taylor win AL Reliever of the Year?: Grant Taylor
KXMLBALRELOTY-26-GTAY
Analysis
This market estimates a 6% chance that Josh Hader wins the American League Reliever of the Year award for the 2026 MLB season. Hader's probability reflects his status as an elite reliever but also acknowledges strong competition in a deep AL bullpen class. The award typically goes to pitchers with both dominant statistics (ERA, strikeout rate, saves) and significant innings pitched during the regular season. Hader's chances would increase with exceptional performance metrics through September or if key competitors experience injury or decline. The outcome will be determined by year-end MLB award voting, with results typically announced in November following the regular season's conclusion.
- ›Hader's earned run average, strikeout rate, and saves total through the 2026 regular season relative to other AL relievers
- ›Injury status and availability of competing elite AL relievers (Clase, King, Lorenzen, Rodon, and others) throughout the season
- ›Total innings pitched and game-save opportunities, since award voters typically favor relievers with substantial workload
- ›Voting pattern trends for the Reliever of the Year award, which historically favors pitchers with sub-2.50 ERA and 40+ saves
- ›Hader's team's postseason performance, as voters sometimes consider playoff success when evaluating relief pitchers
What moved the line
- May 2Aroldis Chapman↓6pp20→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.