Will Brandon Woodruff win NL CPOTY
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$95
6 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
77 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Zack Wheeler win NL CPOTY
Will Zack Wheeler win NL CPOTY?: Zack Wheeler
KXMLBNLCPOTY-26-ZWHE
Cluster 2
Will Michael Harris II win NL CPOTY
Will Michael Harris II win NL CPOTY?: Michael Harris II
KXMLBNLCPOTY-26-MHAR
Cluster 3
Will Shota Imanaga win NL CPOTY
Will Shota Imanaga win NL CPOTY?: Shota Imanaga
KXMLBNLCPOTY-26-SIMA
Cluster 4
Will Ezequiel Tovar win NL CPOTY
Will Ezequiel Tovar win NL CPOTY?: Ezequiel Tovar
KXMLBNLCPOTY-26-ETOV
Cluster 5
Will Sean Manaea win NL CPOTY
Will Sean Manaea win NL CPOTY?: Sean Manaea
KXMLBNLCPOTY-26-SMAN
Cluster 6
Will Tie/Co-Winners win NL CPOTY
Will Tie/Co-Winners win NL CPOTY?: Tie/Co-Winners
KXMLBNLCPOTY-26-TIE
Analysis
A 13% probability means the market currently estimates about a 1-in-8 chance that Brandon Woodruff wins the National League Comeback Player of the Year award. This reflects uncertainty about his performance trajectory for the remainder of the 2026 season relative to other eligible competitors. The probability is driven primarily by Woodruff's actual on-field statistics—wins, earned run average, innings pitched—and how compellingly his narrative aligns with comeback criteria, typically defined as returning from significant injury or performance decline. The resolution point is the official CPOTY award announcement, typically occurring in November after the regular season concludes. Until then, shifts in the probability would correspond to meaningful changes in his statistical standing, injury status, or how voters' preferences consolidate among eligible candidates.
- ›Woodruff's ERA, win total, and innings pitched through season's end compared to other nominees will directly determine voting consideration
- ›Recovery trajectory from previous season injury or underperformance versus competing candidates' narratives
- ›Current market pricing at 3¢ shows minimal trading volume ($0 in 24h), suggesting low conviction or interest from traders versus other CPOTY candidates
- ›Michael Harris II (7¢) and Ezequiel Tovar (11¢) are priced higher, indicating the market views them as stronger CPOTY contenders based on current form
- ›The award's definition and voters' weighting of statistical performance versus narrative comeback elements could materially shift which candidate wins
What moved the line
- Sep 17Zack Wheeler↑5pp72→77¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Zack Wheeler↑3pp75→78¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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