Will Brandon Woodruff win NL CPOTY
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$750
9 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
213 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Sandy Alcantara win NL CPOTY
Will Sandy Alcantara win NL CPOTY?: Sandy Alcantara
KXMLBNLCPOTY-26-SALC
Cluster 2
Will Zack Wheeler win NL CPOTY
Will Zack Wheeler win NL CPOTY?: Zack Wheeler
KXMLBNLCPOTY-26-ZWHE
Cluster 3
Will Brandon Woodruff win NL CPOTY
Will Brandon Woodruff win NL CPOTY?: Brandon Woodruff
KXMLBNLCPOTY-26-BWOO
Cluster 4
Will Michael Harris II win NL CPOTY
Will Michael Harris II win NL CPOTY?: Michael Harris II
KXMLBNLCPOTY-26-MHAR
Cluster 5
Will Tanner Scott win NL CPOTY
Will Tanner Scott win NL CPOTY?: Tanner Scott
KXMLBNLCPOTY-26-TSCO
Cluster 6
Will Shota Imanaga win NL CPOTY
Will Shota Imanaga win NL CPOTY?: Shota Imanaga
KXMLBNLCPOTY-26-SIMA
Cluster 7
Will Ezequiel Tovar win NL CPOTY
Will Ezequiel Tovar win NL CPOTY?: Ezequiel Tovar
KXMLBNLCPOTY-26-ETOV
Cluster 8
Will Sean Manaea win NL CPOTY
Will Sean Manaea win NL CPOTY?: Sean Manaea
KXMLBNLCPOTY-26-SMAN
Cluster 9
Will Tie/Co-Winners win NL CPOTY
Will Tie/Co-Winners win NL CPOTY?: Tie/Co-Winners
KXMLBNLCPOTY-26-TIE
Analysis
This represents the 9% implied probability that Brandon Woodruff will win the National League Cy Young Award in 2026. The low probability reflects that Woodruff faces significant competition from other elite pitchers in the NL who may have stronger seasons. His odds could shift based on his ERA, strikeout rate, win-loss record, and innings pitched throughout the season compared to other contenders. The award will be determined in November 2026 after the regular season concludes, with voters considering cumulative statistics and performance metrics across the entire year.
- ›Woodruff's ERA and WHIP relative to other NL starting pitchers through October 2026
- ›Total innings pitched and durability—Cy Young voting historically favors pitchers with high volume
- ›Win-loss record and team success, as voters sometimes weight wins heavily despite shifts toward advanced metrics
- ›Strikeout rate and K/9 ratio compared to primary NL competitors
- ›Injuries or performance decline during the season that could eliminate him from contention by year's end
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.