Will Robert Suarez win NL Reliever of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$265
14 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
213 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Mason Miller win NL Reliever of the Year
Will Mason Miller win NL Reliever of the Year?: Mason Miller
KXMLBNLRELOTY-26-MMIL
Cluster 2
Will Pete Fairbanks win NL Reliever of the Year
Will Pete Fairbanks win NL Reliever of the Year?: Pete Fairbanks
KXMLBNLRELOTY-26-PFAI
Cluster 3
Will Raisel Iglesias win NL Reliever of the Year
Will Raisel Iglesias win NL Reliever of the Year?: Raisel Iglesias
KXMLBNLRELOTY-26-RIGL
Cluster 4
Will Emilio Pagán win NL Reliever of the Year
Will Emilio Pagán win NL Reliever of the Year?: Emilio Pagán
KXMLBNLRELOTY-26-EPAG
Cluster 5
Will Tanner Scott win NL Reliever of the Year
Will Tanner Scott win NL Reliever of the Year?: Tanner Scott
KXMLBNLRELOTY-26-TSCO
Cluster 6
Will Ryan Walker win NL Reliever of the Year
Will Ryan Walker win NL Reliever of the Year?: Ryan Walker
KXMLBNLRELOTY-26-RWAL
Cluster 7
Will Devin Williams win NL Reliever of the Year
Will Devin Williams win NL Reliever of the Year?: Devin Williams
KXMLBNLRELOTY-26-DWIL
Cluster 8
Will Riley O’Brien win NL Reliever of the Year
Will Riley O’Brien win NL Reliever of the Year?: Riley O’Brien
KXMLBNLRELOTY-26-ROBR
Cluster 9
Will Dennis Santana win NL Reliever of the Year
Will Dennis Santana win NL Reliever of the Year?: Dennis Santana
KXMLBNLRELOTY-26-DSAN
Cluster 10
Will Trevor Megill win NL Reliever of the Year
Will Trevor Megill win NL Reliever of the Year?: Trevor Megill
KXMLBNLRELOTY-26-TMEG
Cluster 11
Will Clayton Beeter win NL Reliever of the Year
Will Clayton Beeter win NL Reliever of the Year?: Clayton Beeter
KXMLBNLRELOTY-26-CBEE
Cluster 12
Will Kevin Ginkel win NL Reliever of the Year
Will Kevin Ginkel win NL Reliever of the Year?: Kevin Ginkel
KXMLBNLRELOTY-26-KGIN
Cluster 13
Will Gregory Soto win NL Reliever of the Year
Will Gregory Soto win NL Reliever of the Year?: Gregory Soto
KXMLBNLRELOTY-26-GSOT
Cluster 14
Will Jeremiah Estrada win NL Reliever of the Year
Will Jeremiah Estrada win NL Reliever of the Year?: Jeremiah Estrada
KXMLBNLRELOTY-26-JEST
Analysis
This 10% probability indicates that prediction market participants see Robert Suarez as a relatively unlikely winner of the 2026 National League Reliever of the Year award. The current market pricing reflects Suarez's 2026 performance relative to other NL relievers, with factors like ERA, saves, innings pitched, and overall team success typically influencing voting outcomes. The probability could shift significantly based on how Suarez performs through the remainder of the 2026 season, injury developments, or if he accumulates standout statistics that separate him from competitors. The resolution will occur after the regular season concludes, when voting is conducted and the award winner is announced in early November 2026. Until then, his actual performance metrics and comparative standing among other elite NL relievers will drive any market movement.
- ›Suarez's season-to-date ERA, saves total, and innings pitched relative to other NL relievers as of early May 2026
- ›Injury status and availability for the remainder of the 2026 season, which would affect accumulation of statistics and voting consideration
- ›Performance trajectory through June-September, including consistency and success in high-leverage situations
- ›Competition from other established relief pitchers in the NL with similar or better statistical profiles
- ›Voter preferences weighted toward different statistical categories (saves versus ERA versus overall appearances) when the award is decided in November 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.