Will Aaron Judge be the American League Player of the Month for April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$934
10 contracts
Closes
Jun 5, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Cody Bellinger be the American League Player of the Month for May
Cluster 2
Will Andy Pages be the National League Player of the Month for May
Will Andy Pages be the National League Player of the Month for May?: Andy Pages
KXMLBPLAYEROTM-26MAYNL-APAGES44
Cluster 3
Will Aaron Judge be the American League Player of the Month for May
Will Aaron Judge be the American League Player of the Month for May?: Aaron Judge
KXMLBPLAYEROTM-26MAYAL-AJUDGE99
Cluster 4
Will Shohei Ohtani be the National League Player of the Month for May
Will Shohei Ohtani be the National League Player of the Month for May?: Shohei Ohtani
KXMLBPLAYEROTM-26MAYNL-SOHTANI17
Cluster 5
Will Bobby Witt Jr. be the American League Player of the Month for May
Will Bobby Witt Jr. be the American League Player of the Month for May?: Bobby Witt Jr.
KXMLBPLAYEROTM-26MAYAL-BWITT7
Cluster 6
Will Shea Langeliers be the American League Player of the Month for May
Cluster 7
Will Zach Neto be the American League Player of the Month for May
Will Zach Neto be the American League Player of the Month for May?: Zach Neto
KXMLBPLAYEROTM-26MAYAL-ZNETO9
Cluster 8
Will Nick Kurtz be the American League Player of the Month for May
Will Nick Kurtz be the American League Player of the Month for May?: Nick Kurtz
KXMLBPLAYEROTM-26MAYAL-NKURTZ16
Cluster 9
Will Sal Stewart be the National League Player of the Month for May
Will Sal Stewart be the National League Player of the Month for May?: Sal Stewart
KXMLBPLAYEROTM-26MAYNL-SSTEWART27
Cluster 10
Will Kyle Schwarber be the National League Player of the Month for May
Analysis
This 17% probability reflects the market's assessment that Aaron Judge will be named the American League's Player of the Month for April 2026. The relatively low probability suggests the market views other AL players as more likely to claim the honor based on their April performance. Judge's chance of winning depends primarily on his offensive statistics through April—batting average, home runs, RBIs, and on-base percentage relative to competing AL players. The actual resolution occurs when MLB announces the official April Player of the Month award, typically in early May. Factors that could shift this probability include Judge's actual April performance data, injuries to other top AL contenders, and whether the New York Yankees remain competitive. Since April has already concluded as of today's date, the award announcement should be imminent, making this a near-term resolution event. The 17% probability suggests the market currently favors other players but acknowledges Judge as a realistic candidate depending on final statistics.
- ›Judge's April 2026 offensive statistics (home runs, RBIs, batting average, OPS) compared to other AL players who performed in the same period
- ›Whether injuries to Judge or other top AL offensive performers occurred during April that affected their eligibility or competitiveness
- ›The specific voting criteria and historical patterns MLB uses to select monthly award winners, including how team performance factors into individual player recognition
- ›Market prices on competing AL players' Player of the Month probabilities, which would indicate the distribution of expected winners
- ›The timing and official announcement date from MLB of the April 2026 Player of the Month award
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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