Kyle Tucker: 2+ total bases
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−11pp
23h ago
24h volume
$443
3 contracts
Closes
May 11, 2026
3 days
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Rafael Devers” vs “Oneil Cruz: 2+ total bases”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Rafael Devers
Cluster 2
Oneil Cruz: 2+ total bases
Oneil Cruz: 2+ total bases?: Oneil Cruz: 2+
KXMLBTB-26MAY082215PITSF-PITOCRUZ15-2
Analysis
Kyle Tucker's 2+ total bases contract reflects a 35% probability that he will record at least two total bases (doubles, triples, or home runs combined with singles) in his next game or specified period. This probability sits below comparable players like Bobby Witt Jr. (42%) and José Ramírez (39%), suggesting the market views Tucker as less likely to achieve multi-base production in the near term. The pricing likely reflects recent performance data, current matchup conditions, or injury status. The resolution will depend on Tucker's actual at-bat outcomes in the relevant game(s), with market expectations adjusting based on lineup announcements, pitching matchups, or any roster changes announced before first pitch.
- ›Tucker's recent statistical performance in games versus similar opposing pitchers and ballpark conditions
- ›Whether Tucker is in the lineup for the relevant game and his recent plate discipline metrics (strikeout rate, contact quality)
- ›Comparison to baseline rates: approximately 30-40% of qualified MLB players record 2+ total bases in a given game
- ›Pitcher matchup factors including velocity profile, strikeout generation, and ballpark dimensions that favor power or contact hitting
- ›Any injury updates, roster moves, or batting order changes announced since the contract was priced
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 h ago.