MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 86% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ilhan Omar
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Latonya Reeves
Spread
73pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$41
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
94 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
This market estimates an 80% probability that a specific candidate wins the Minnesota 5th District Democratic primary. The high confidence reflects either strong polling or fundraising data favoring the leading candidate, with the remaining 20% probability distributed to alternatives. This outcome would shift depending on candidate endorsements, debate performance, or turnout patterns in the district. The primary election date—typically held in early August for Minnesota congressional races—represents the key resolution event. Until then, campaign developments and any public polling releases would be the primary drivers of probability movement, as would any major gaffes or endorsement swings that alter the perceived front-runner status.
- ›Leading candidate's current polling margin versus nearest competitor in MN-05
- ›Endorsement patterns from state party leadership, incumbent representatives, or union organizations
- ›Relative fundraising totals and cash-on-hand position as of latest FEC reports
- ›Historical turnout and demographic composition of Minnesota 5th District primary voters
- ›Timing and results of any public polling releases between now and election day
What moved the line
- May 6Ilhan Omar↑8pp81→89¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Latonya Reeves↓7pp21→14¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (86% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.