MSI 2026 Winning Region: LCK (South Korea)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 69% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
69%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$263
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 12, 2026
35 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MSI 2026 Winning Region: LCK
MSI 2026 Winning Region: LCK (South Korea)
0x4890e3…9f9e
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that a South Korean team from the LCK region will win the Mid-Season Invitational 2026. At 79%, the market assigns substantially higher odds to LCK than other regions. This reflects LCK's historical dominance in international League of Legends competition, particularly at MSI where Korean teams have won multiple tournaments. The probability could shift based on recent performance trajectories of LCK teams versus representatives from other major regions like LEC, LPL, and wildcards leading into the tournament. The MSI 2026 event itself, scheduled for later in 2026, will ultimately determine the outcome. Until then, movements in this probability would likely track major regional tournament results, roster changes, and head-to-head international matchups that occur before MSI begins.
- ›LCK's historical MSI win rate and international tournament track record relative to other regions
- ›Current year-to-date performance of top LCK teams compared to title contenders from LEC, LPL, and other regions
- ›Roster composition, player transfers, and team stability within the LCK heading into MSI 2026
- ›Results from regional championships and qualifying tournaments that determine which teams represent each region
- ›Recent international tournament results or scrims that reveal competitive gaps between regions
What moved the line
- Jun 1LCK (South Korea)↑5pp71→76¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4LCK (South Korea)↓5pp76→71¢ · Polymarket
- May 31LCK (South Korea)↑4pp67→71¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (69% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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