Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above 7.2 million skier visits in Q3 2026
Leader sits at 92% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 87%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 6.6 million
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
87¢
Above 6.9 million
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$117
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 4, 2026
57 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above
Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above 7.2 million skier visits in Q3 2026?: Above 7.2 million
KXMTN-26JUNSKIER-7200000.0
Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above 6.9 million skier visits in Q3 2026?: Above 6.9 million
KXMTN-26JUNSKIER-6900000.0
Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above 7.5 million skier visits in Q3 2026?: Above 7.5 million
KXMTN-26JUNSKIER-7500000.0
Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above 7.8 million skier visits in Q3 2026?: Above 7.8 million
KXMTN-26JUNSKIER-7800000.0
Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above 6.6 million skier visits in Q3 2026?: Above 6.6 million
KXMTN-26JUNSKIER-6600000.0
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Vail Resorts will report more than 7.2 million skier visits across its resorts during Q3 2026 (July-September), with markets currently pricing this outcome at 47% probability. Q3 represents the shoulder season between summer and fall skiing, making visitation dependent on weather patterns, summer activity levels, and school holiday schedules. The probability reflects uncertainty around whether warm temperatures or precipitation patterns will drive or suppress visits during this typically moderate-traffic quarter. Resolution will occur in October 2026 when Vail Resorts reports official Q3 earnings and skier visit data, providing exact confirmation of the threshold. Key drivers include competition from alternative summer recreation, international tourism patterns, and regional weather conditions across Vail's North American resort portfolio.
- ›Q3 is historically a lower-traffic season compared to winter months, so the 7.2 million threshold represents a specific operational performance level that requires above-average shoulder-season demand
- ›Weather patterns in July-September 2026, particularly temperature and precipitation at high elevations, will directly influence both summer activity and early-season ski conditions
- ›Vail Resorts' official Q3 2026 earnings report (expected October 2026) will provide exact skier visit figures, making this binary outcome completely verifiable
- ›Competitive pressure from alternative summer destinations and economic conditions affecting discretionary travel spending will influence visitation levels during this period
- ›The contract's 47% probability suggests near-parity between outcomes, indicating significant genuine uncertainty rather than a consensus view
What moved the line
- May 7Above 7.2 million↑5pp51→56¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Above 6.6 million↑3pp91→94¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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