Will the natural gas close price be above 2.790 USD/MMBtu on Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT
Leader sits at 58% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 56%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
above $2.700
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
56¢
above $2.705
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
May 7, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the natural gas close price be above
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.700 USD/MMBtu on May 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.700
KXNATGASD-26MAY0717-T2.700
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.800 USD/MMBtu on May 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.800
KXNATGASD-26MAY0717-T2.800
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.765 USD/MMBtu on May 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.765
KXNATGASD-26MAY0717-T2.765
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.705 USD/MMBtu on May 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.705
KXNATGASD-26MAY0717-T2.705
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.725 USD/MMBtu on May 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.725
KXNATGASD-26MAY0717-T2.725
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.760 USD/MMBtu on May 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.760
KXNATGASD-26MAY0717-T2.760
Will the natural gas close price be above 3.145 USD/MMBtu on May 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $3.145
KXNATGASD-26MAY0717-T3.145
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.720 USD/MMBtu on May 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.720
KXNATGASD-26MAY0717-T2.720
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.710 USD/MMBtu on May 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.710
KXNATGASD-26MAY0717-T2.710
Will the natural gas close price be above 3 USD/MMBtu on May 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $3
KXNATGASD-26MAY0717-T3
Will the natural gas close price be above 3.035 USD/MMBtu on May 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $3.035
KXNATGASD-26MAY0717-T3.035
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.810 USD/MMBtu on May 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.810
KXNATGASD-26MAY0717-T2.810
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.820 USD/MMBtu on May 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.820
KXNATGASD-26MAY0717-T2.820
What moved the line
- May 7above $2.800↓5pp16→11¢ · Kalshi
- May 7above $2.705↑4pp55→59¢ · Kalshi
- May 7above $2.710↑4pp52→56¢ · Kalshi
- May 7above $2.810↓4pp13→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 7above $2.700↑3pp58→61¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 20 h ago.