Will the natural gas close price be above $2.399 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT
Leader sits at 82% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
above $2.499
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
79¢
above $2.199
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$43
thin orderbook
Closes
May 29, 2026
21 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the natural gas close price be above
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.999 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.999
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T2.999
Will the natural gas close price be above 3.199 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $3.199
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T3.199
Will the natural gas close price be above 3.999 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $3.999
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T3.999
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.599 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.599
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T2.599
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.499 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.499
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T2.499
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.399 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.399
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T2.399
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.299 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.299
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T2.299
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.199 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.199
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T2.199
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.099 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.099
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T2.099
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.999 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.999
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T1.999
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.899 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.899
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T1.899
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.799 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.799
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T1.799
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.699 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.699
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T1.699
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.599 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.599
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T1.599
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.499 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.499
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T1.499
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.399 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.399
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T1.399
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.299 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.299
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T1.299
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.199 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.199
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T1.199
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.099 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.099
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T1.099
Will the natural gas close price be above 0.999 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $0.999
KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T0.999
Analysis
This contract measures whether U.S. natural gas futures will close above $2.399 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on April 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT. Markets currently assign a 94% probability to this outcome, reflecting expectations that prices will remain relatively elevated. Natural gas pricing depends on seasonal demand patterns, weather forecasts affecting heating and cooling needs, inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration, and global supply dynamics. The main uncertainty hinges on whether storage levels normalize through the spring and early summer, and whether any supply disruptions or unexpected demand spikes occur before the resolution date. The weekly EIA inventory reports and weather forecasts through late April will be the primary drivers of price movement in the weeks leading up to settlement.
- ›Current natural gas futures prices are trading in a range where $2.399 represents a modest premium to recent trading levels, making the high probability partially reflect near-term momentum
- ›EIA weekly inventory reports typically drive short-term volatility; unexpectedly low storage levels could support prices above the threshold, while builds could pressure them downward
- ›Spring weather patterns between now and late April will significantly influence demand; colder-than-normal temperatures would support higher prices, while mild conditions would pressure them lower
- ›The contract resolves in approximately 4 weeks, limiting the timeframe for major supply shocks, which may explain the elevated probability versus longer-dated contracts
- ›Natural gas above $3.899 (the highest strike shown) trades at only 3 cents, indicating market consensus that extreme price spikes are unlikely during this window
What moved the line
- May 6above $0.999↑80pp6→86¢ · Kalshi
- May 6above $1.299↑79pp6→85¢ · Kalshi
- May 6above $1.199↑78pp6→84¢ · Kalshi
- May 6above $1.999↑69pp19→88¢ · Kalshi
- May 6above $1.099↑65pp20→85¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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