Will New York win the 1H by over 3.5 points
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10K
16 contracts
Closes
May 23, 2026
14 days
Bracket families
4 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Cleveland win the 1H by over
Will Cleveland win the 1H by over 4.5 points?: Cleveland wins the 1H by over 4.5 points
KXNBA1HSPREAD-26MAY09DETCLE-CLE4
Will Cleveland win the 1H by over 1.5 points?: Cleveland wins the 1H by over 1.5 points
KXNBA1HSPREAD-26MAY09DETCLE-CLE1
Will Cleveland win the 1H by over 7.5 points?: Cleveland wins the 1H by over 7.5 points
KXNBA1HSPREAD-26MAY09DETCLE-CLE7
Will Cleveland win the 1H by over 10.5 points?: Cleveland wins the 1H by over 10.5 points
KXNBA1HSPREAD-26MAY09DETCLE-CLE10
Will Cleveland win the 1H by over 13.5 points?: Cleveland wins the 1H by over 13.5 points
KXNBA1HSPREAD-26MAY09DETCLE-CLE13
Will Cleveland win the 1H by over 16.5 points?: Cleveland wins the 1H by over 16.5 points
KXNBA1HSPREAD-26MAY09DETCLE-CLE16
Cluster 2
Will Oklahoma City win the 1H by over
Will Oklahoma City win the 1H by over 3.5 points?: Oklahoma City wins the 1H by over 3.5 points
KXNBA1HSPREAD-26MAY09OKCLAL-OKC3
Will Oklahoma City win the 1H by over 15.5 points?: Oklahoma City wins the 1H by over 15.5 points
KXNBA1HSPREAD-26MAY09OKCLAL-OKC15
Will Oklahoma City win the 1H by over 12.5 points?: Oklahoma City wins the 1H by over 12.5 points
KXNBA1HSPREAD-26MAY09OKCLAL-OKC12
Will Oklahoma City win the 1H by over 9.5 points?: Oklahoma City wins the 1H by over 9.5 points
KXNBA1HSPREAD-26MAY09OKCLAL-OKC9
Will Oklahoma City win the 1H by over 6.5 points?: Oklahoma City wins the 1H by over 6.5 points
KXNBA1HSPREAD-26MAY09OKCLAL-OKC6
Cluster 3
Will Los Angeles L win the 1H by over
Will Los Angeles L win the 1H by over 9.5 points?: Los Angeles L wins the 1H by over 9.5 points
KXNBA1HSPREAD-26MAY09OKCLAL-LAL9
Will Los Angeles L win the 1H by over 3.5 points?: Los Angeles L wins the 1H by over 3.5 points
KXNBA1HSPREAD-26MAY09OKCLAL-LAL3
Will Los Angeles L win the 1H by over 6.5 points?: Los Angeles L wins the 1H by over 6.5 points
KXNBA1HSPREAD-26MAY09OKCLAL-LAL6
Cluster 4
Will Detroit win the 1H by over
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.