Nikola Vučević: 1+ threes
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−9pp
47h ago
24h volume
$4K
20 contracts
Closes
May 23, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Chet Holmgren” vs “Cade Cunningham”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Chet Holmgren
Chet Holmgren: 2+ threes: Chet Holmgren: 2+
KXNBA3PT-26MAY09OKCLAL-OKCCHOLMGREN7-2
Chet Holmgren: 4+ threes: Chet Holmgren: 4+
KXNBA3PT-26MAY09OKCLAL-OKCCHOLMGREN7-4
Chet Holmgren: 3+ threes: Chet Holmgren: 3+
KXNBA3PT-26MAY09OKCLAL-OKCCHOLMGREN7-3
Cluster 2
Cade Cunningham
Cade Cunningham: 4+ threes: Cade Cunningham: 4+
KXNBA3PT-26MAY09DETCLE-DETCCUNNINGHAM2-4
Cade Cunningham: 3+ threes: Cade Cunningham: 3+
KXNBA3PT-26MAY09DETCLE-DETCCUNNINGHAM2-3
Cade Cunningham: 5+ threes: Cade Cunningham: 5+
KXNBA3PT-26MAY09DETCLE-DETCCUNNINGHAM2-5
Cluster 3
Duncan Robinson
Cluster 4
LeBron James
Cluster 5
Austin Reaves
Cluster 6
Donovan Mitchell
Cluster 7
Tobias Harris
Cluster 8
James Harden
Cluster 9
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3+ threes: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3+
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3+ threes: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3+
KXNBA3PT-26MAY09OKCLAL-OKCSGILGEOUSALEXANDER2-3
Cluster 10
Jaylon Tyson: 2+ threes: Jaylon Tyson: 2+
Jaylon Tyson: 2+ threes: Jaylon Tyson: 2+
KXNBA3PT-26MAY09DETCLE-CLEJTYSON20-2
Analysis
This contract resolves to yes if Nikola Vučević makes at least one three-pointer in a specified game, with the market currently pricing this outcome at 40%. Vučević's three-point volume and accuracy depend on his role in his team's offensive system, his playing time that night, and defensive adjustments from opponents. Players at his position who see heavy usage sometimes shift toward perimeter shooting as spacing needs evolve, while aging or injury considerations can affect both opportunity and performance. The resolution hinges on the actual game performance on the scheduled date, where factors like opponent defense, Vučević's health status, and his specific role in the team's gameplan directly determine the outcome. Recent form and shooting efficiency trends provide context, but individual game variance remains substantial for shot-making probabilities.
- ›Vučević's season three-point attempt rate and whether it has trended higher or lower in recent games
- ›His field goal and three-point shooting percentages year-to-date compared to his career norms
- ›Expected playing time and role in that specific game based on team rotation patterns and injury status
- ›Defensive matchup characteristics of the opposing team, particularly how they defend centers on the perimeter
- ›Whether the game context (pace, score differential expectations) typically correlates with higher or lower three-point volume
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.