Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 84% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 57%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$20M
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
57¢
$50M
Spread
27pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch
Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $20M
0x482223…7573
Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B
0x12cd8d…906f
Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $700M
0xa7a915…32da
Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
0xbd07d1…b594
Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0xe00760…2983
Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0xc05ab1…313f
Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0x753cab…83fc
Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M
0xf4361d…412f
Analysis
This contract reflects market participants' view that Neutrl's fully diluted valuation (FDV) will exceed $100 million within one day of its launch. The 64% probability indicates traders consider this outcome likely but not certain. The market's confidence level is notably influenced by comparable token launches and typical FDV levels at debut, as well as the project's pre-launch positioning and investor interest. Key upside pressures include strong demand at launch and early trading momentum, while downside risks involve post-launch volatility and valuation resets. Resolution depends entirely on Neutrl's actual FDV calculation one day after launch becomes public, which represents the single definitive catalyst that will determine whether this contract settles as true or false.
- ›Current price of 64% reflects material probability but not consensus certainty; runner-up outcome at 54% shows significant remaining disagreement
- ›Related contracts show the market pricing lower FDV thresholds ($500M, $100M brackets) at substantially higher probabilities, suggesting FDV floor expectations vary by contract
- ›Volume concentration in competing contracts ($5580-$6051 daily volume) indicates active trading around adjacent price points rather than concentrated conviction
- ›Polymarket aggregation from 7 distinct contracts means outcome reflects distributed opinion rather than single centralized forecast
- ›Resolution requires precise FDV calculation methodology one day post-launch; ambiguity in how FDV is measured could influence final settlement
What moved the line
- May 6$20M↑21pp64→85¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$200M↓15pp43→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$500M↓13pp23→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 3$200M↑8pp35→43¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$300M↓8pp42→34¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.