New pandemic in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
14%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+2pp
47h ago
24h volume
$17K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
New pandemic in 2026
New pandemic in 2026?
0xfaa433…43fe
Analysis
This 12% probability reflects the market's assessment that a pandemic meeting standard definitions will emerge and spread globally in 2026. The relatively low probability reflects both the difficulty of predicting novel disease emergence and the absence of currently known pathogens with pandemic potential at this stage of the year. The probability could shift based on detection of novel viruses with high transmissibility or severity in surveillance systems, unusual respiratory illness clusters, or formal declarations by health authorities. The year's resolution depends largely on how definitional thresholds are applied—whether a pandemic requires WHO declaration, cross-border spread, or specific case counts. Continued disease surveillance data, laboratory confirmations of novel pathogens, and official health organization statements through year-end 2026 will determine the outcome.
- ›Lack of credible reports of novel pathogens with documented human-to-human transmission as of May 2026
- ›Definition sensitivity: resolution likely hinges on whether WHO declaration, cross-border spread, or case thresholds trigger affirmative outcome
- ›Current global disease surveillance systems have not flagged emerging threats meeting pandemic criteria in 2026 year-to-date
- ›Historical base rate of pandemic emergence varies significantly by decade, making prediction difficult without current epidemiological indicators
- ›Resolution authority (WHO declarations, health ministry designations, or contract-specified case counts) will ultimately determine binary outcome rather than market consensus alone
What moved the line
- May 6New pandemic in 2026?↑3pp9→12¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (14% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.