Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Leader sits at 65% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Magdalena Andersson
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
Ulf Kristersson
Spread
31pp
contested
24h volume
$240
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 13, 2026
127 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Analysis
The market is pricing a 62% probability for a specific outcome regarding Sweden's next Prime Minister, based on aggregated contract pricing across multiple exchanges. This reflects trader expectations about which political figure or party will lead the Swedish government following current political developments. The probability is driven by factors including current coalition dynamics in the Swedish parliament, polling trends for major parties, and statements from political leaders about their intentions to form or continue governments. The most significant catalyst would be any formal announcement of a new government formation, dissolution of parliament triggering new elections, or a major shift in party support as measured by public opinion polls. Key events to monitor include parliamentary votes on government confidence, public opinion surveys, and any official statements from party leadership about coalition negotiations or electoral timing.
- ›Current composition and stability of Sweden's ruling coalition or government, including which parties hold ministerial positions and their combined parliamentary majority
- ›Recent polling data showing support levels for major Swedish parties (Moderate Party, Social Democrats, Sweden Democrats, and others) and their relative electoral strength
- ›Public statements or actions by named political candidates indicating willingness to form a government or lead coalition negotiations
- ›Timing of the next Swedish general election or any parliamentary procedures that could trigger government formation debates
- ›Historical precedent for Swedish coalition-building patterns and which parties have demonstrated ability to form stable governing majorities
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (65% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.