Will Emerson Bartolome win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 7, 2027
244 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Darian Bryan win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5
Will Darian Bryan win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5?: Darian Bryan
KXNEXTLEVELCHEF-26DEC31-DAR
Cluster 2
Will Connor Caine win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5
Will Connor Caine win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5?: Connor Caine
KXNEXTLEVELCHEF-26DEC31-CON
Cluster 3
Will Cole Lawson win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5
Will Cole Lawson win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5?: Cole Lawson
KXNEXTLEVELCHEF-26DEC31-COL
Cluster 4
Will Danielle Kartes win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5
Will Danielle Kartes win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5?: Danielle Kartes
KXNEXTLEVELCHEF-26DEC31-DAN
Cluster 5
Will Elise Jesse win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5
Will Elise Jesse win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5?: Elise Jesse
KXNEXTLEVELCHEF-26DEC31-ELI
Cluster 6
Will Emerson Bartolome win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5
Will Emerson Bartolome win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5?: Emerson Bartolome
KXNEXTLEVELCHEF-26DEC31-EME
Cluster 7
Will Gabrielle Coniglio win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5
Will Gabrielle Coniglio win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5?: Gabrielle Coniglio
KXNEXTLEVELCHEF-26DEC31-GAB
Cluster 8
Will Mareya Ibrahim-Jones win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5
Will Mareya Ibrahim-Jones win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5?: Mareya Ibrahim-Jones
KXNEXTLEVELCHEF-26DEC31-MAR
Cluster 9
Will Matt Starcher win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5
Will Matt Starcher win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5?: Matt Starcher
KXNEXTLEVELCHEF-26DEC31-MAT
Analysis
This market estimates a 13% probability that Emerson Bartolome will win Next Level Chef Season 5. The relatively low odds suggest the market views Bartolome as a competitive but not favored contestant among the season's participants. The probability reflects uncertainty about contestant performance, judge preferences, and elimination dynamics across the season's full run. Resolution depends on the show's broadcast schedule and final episode outcome. Key drivers include Bartolome's performance in early episodes, strength of competing chefs, and judge feedback patterns that emerge as the season progresses.
- ›Early episode performance and elimination results will provide direct evidence of Bartolome's competitive position relative to other contestants
- ›Judge commentary and scoring patterns in broadcast episodes will signal confidence levels in Bartolome's technical skills and creativity
- ›Contestant eliminations and advancement rounds will reduce uncertainty by narrowing the final pool from which a winner can emerge
- ›Prior performance data on similar contestants or previous season winners may inform expectations about Bartolome's trajectory
- ›The show's air date schedule determines when market resolution occurs and how much information becomes available before final episodes
What moved the line
- May 6Connor Caine↓6pp10→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Darian Bryan↑4pp87→91¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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