Will the price of natural gas get above $6.00 per million BTU before January 1, 2027
Leader sits at 93% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 62%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$4.01 or above
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
62¢
$6.01 or above
Spread
31pp
contested
24h volume
$25
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the price of natural gas get above $
Will the price of natural gas get above $7.00 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?: $7.01 or above
KXNGASMAX-26DEC31-P7.00
Will the price of natural gas get above $6.50 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?: $6.51 or above
KXNGASMAX-26DEC31-P6.50
Will the price of natural gas get above $6.00 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?: $6.01 or above
KXNGASMAX-26DEC31-P6.00
Will the price of natural gas get above $4.00 per million BTU before January 1, 2027?: $4.01 or above
KXNGASMAX-26DEC31-P4.00
Analysis
This reflects traders' assessment that natural gas will exceed $6.00 per million BTU at some point between now and December 31, 2026. The 93% probability is driven by current pricing around $2.75–$3.10/MMBtu and the seven-month window available for a near-doubling of prices. Natural gas markets respond sharply to supply disruptions, demand spikes from extreme weather, and inventory levels reported weekly by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The critical factor determining whether this threshold is reached will be whether a significant supply shock (production outage, pipeline disruption, or extreme cold snap) occurs during the Northern Hemisphere winter season ahead. Near-term prices remain range-bound, but the large probability gap suggests markets are pricing in a meaningful tail risk of such disruption over the next 31 weeks.
- ›Current natural gas spot prices trade $2.75–$3.10/MMBtu, requiring a 100%+ price increase to reach $6.00 within 240 days
- ›Weekly EIA inventory reports and monthly production data will establish supply cushions; a multi-week draw or production failure could trigger rapid repricing upward
- ›Historical natural gas volatility exceeds 30% annually; price swings of 50%+ in 2–4 week windows have occurred during supply disruptions or winter demand peaks
- ›Winter 2026–27 demand intensity depends on heating-season temperature anomalies and LNG export capacity utilization; both remain uncertain until Q4 2026
- ›The three leading Kalshi contracts price much lower probabilities ($0.05–$0.16) for near-term thresholds ($3.10–$3.40 by early May), suggesting most upside probability mass is weighted to Q4 2026 events
What moved the line
- May 7$6.01 or above↑37pp21→58¢ · Kalshi
- May 7$6.51 or above↑15pp29→44¢ · Kalshi
- May 6$7.01 or above↑11pp30→41¢ · Kalshi
- May 3$6.01 or above↑11pp10→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 8$6.01 or above↑6pp58→64¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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