Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy
Leader sits at 51% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Connor McDavid
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
Nikita Kucherov
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy
Analysis
The current 30% probability indicates that the market views this candidate as the leading contender for the Hart Memorial Trophy, but not as the favorite overall—two other outcomes command higher individual confidence. The Hart Trophy, awarded annually to the NHL's Most Valuable Player, depends on regular-season performance metrics like goals, assists, and plus-minus rating, as well as team success and voter perception. The probability will likely shift based on remaining regular-season play, statistical performance trajectories, and playoff performance through the 2025-26 season's conclusion in June 2026. Key catalysts include month-by-month statistical updates, team standings changes, and any significant injuries affecting top contenders.
- ›Current leader holds 30% against runner-up at 27%, indicating a competitive, unsettled race rather than a runaway favorite
- ›Three separate Kalshi contracts aggregate the market view, suggesting reasonable liquidity but limited contract depth compared to established favorites
- ›Performance-based award means real-time stats (goals, assists, plus-minus) will be continuously updated through regular season and playoffs
- ›End-of-season voting occurs after regular season concludes (typically April), making remaining games and playoff performance critical variables
- ›Market concentration on other trophies (Vezina, Heisman) shows traders are active across NHL awards, indicating Hart market participants may be informed comparatively
What moved the line
- May 3Connor McDavid↓23pp53→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Connor McDavid↑17pp30→47¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Connor McDavid↓7pp47→40¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Nathan MacKinnon↓4pp13→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Connor McDavid↑4pp40→44¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.