Who will win James Norris Memorial Trophy
Leader sits at 73% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Zach Werenski
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
Rasmus Dahlin
Spread
52pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win James Norris Memorial Trophy
Analysis
Market participants are pricing an 87% probability for a specific outcome in the James Norris Memorial Trophy award, indicating strong consensus around one recipient. This high confidence level reflects either dominant recent performance by a leading candidate or limited remaining uncertainty in the voting process. The probability would shift downward if competing candidates demonstrate exceptional late-season performance or if voting becomes more fragmented among voters. The primary catalyst determining final resolution is the conclusion of the NHL regular season and playoffs, combined with the voting period for this award. Market movement will likely accelerate as the postseason progresses and voter preferences become clearer. Any major injury, suspension, or unexpected performance decline by the frontrunner could meaningfully compress this probability.
- ›One candidate's current contract trades at 87%, indicating near-consensus among market participants on the likely winner
- ›The runner-up position trades at only 3%, suggesting substantial separation between the leader and alternatives
- ›Aggregate trading volume remains relatively modest (two Kalshi contracts), which could mean wider bid-ask spreads and less price discovery than higher-volume markets
- ›Final voting occurs after the regular season ends, so all remaining games represent potential catalysts for repricing
- ›Large performance differentials late in the season—such as elite statistical achievements or playoff heroics—historically drive Norris voting
What moved the line
- May 7Zach Werenski↓10pp89→79¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Zach Werenski↓9pp79→70¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Rasmus Dahlin↑3pp2→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.