Who will win Vezina Trophy
Leader sits at 86% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
Thatcher Demko
Spread
72pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$768
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win Vezina Trophy
Who will win Vezina Trophy?: Jeremy Swayman
KXNHLVEZINA-26-JSWA
Who will win Vezina Trophy?: Ilya Sorokin
KXNHLVEZINA-26-ISOR
Who will win Vezina Trophy?: Andrei Vasilevskiy
KXNHLVEZINA-26-AVAS
Who will win Vezina Trophy?: Joey Daccord
KXNHLVEZINA-26-JDAC
Who will win Vezina Trophy?: Thatcher Demko
KXNHLVEZINA-26-TDEM
Who will win Vezina Trophy?: Juuse Saros
KXNHLVEZINA-26-JSAR
Who will win Vezina Trophy?: Jacob Markstrom
KXNHLVEZINA-26-JMAR
Analysis
The 83% probability on Andrei Vasilevskiy reflects market expectations that he will win the Vezina Trophy, awarded annually to the NHL's best goaltender. This strong confidence reflects Vasilevskiy's track record as a two-time Vezina winner and his ongoing performance with the Tampa Bay Lightning. The primary factors supporting this level are his season statistics and historical accomplishment, while meaningful competition from goalies like Ilya Sorokin (priced at 6%) could push the probability lower if their teams perform exceptionally well down the stretch. The Vezina winner is determined by a vote among NHL broadcasters, coaches, and media following the regular season, typically announced in June. Changes in goaltender performance, team playoff positioning, and voting patterns from previous years will ultimately determine whether Vasilevskiy maintains this favorite status through award announcement.
- ›Vasilevskiy's historical voting patterns and prior Vezina wins provide a baseline expectation for voter familiarity and preference
- ›Regular-season save percentage and goals-against average for top candidates will be publicly available metrics voters use for comparison
- ›The gap between Vasilevskiy at 83% and Sorokin at 6% suggests market assigns meaningful probability to alternatives, indicating uncertainty remains resolvable
- ›Award voting occurs post-season in June 2026, creating a defined date when all statistical performance data becomes final
- ›Voter composition (broadcasters, coaches, media) may weight performance differently, affecting how close statistical performances translate to voting margins
What moved the line
- May 2Andrei Vasilevskiy↓5pp88→83¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Andrei Vasilevskiy↑3pp83→86¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.