NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 39% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Beth Davidson
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
Cait Conley
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$567
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
45 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
The 48% probability indicates that the leading candidate in the NY-17 Democratic primary is favored but faces meaningful competition, with roughly even odds of victory when accounting for the runner-up at 40%. Primary outcomes depend on factors including candidate endorsements, voter registration shifts in the district, media coverage intensity, and turnout patterns in specific areas. The actual primary election date will be the definitive resolution event. Current market pricing reflects uncertainty about whether frontrunner momentum will hold or whether consolidation around alternative candidates could shift the race. Factors like debate performance, campaign spending reports, and local polling—if released closer to voting—could substantially move expectations.
- ›Candidate endorsement patterns from local Democratic party figures and established politicians
- ›Voter turnout modeling for the specific NY-17 district demographics on primary day
- ›Campaign finance reports showing spending disparities and available resources among major candidates
- ›Any public polling data released in the 30-60 days before the primary election
- ›District-level registration changes or demographic shifts that may have occurred since the last cycle
What moved the line
- May 6Cait Conley↓10pp48→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Effie Phillips-Staley↑7pp11→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Beth Davidson↑6pp38→44¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Beth Davidson↓5pp52→47¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Effie Phillips-Staley↓4pp18→14¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.