Will New York City rent grow above 5% in December 2026
Leader sits at 91% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 87%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 0%
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
87¢
Above 1%
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 11, 2027
247 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will New York City rent grow above
Will New York City rent grow above 0% in December 2026?: Above 0%
KXNYCRENTSY-26-T0
Will New York City rent grow above 7% in December 2026?: Above 7%
KXNYCRENTSY-26-T7
Will New York City rent grow above 6% in December 2026?: Above 6%
KXNYCRENTSY-26-T6
Will New York City rent grow above 5% in December 2026?: Above 5%
KXNYCRENTSY-26-T5
Will New York City rent grow above 4% in December 2026?: Above 4%
KXNYCRENTSY-26-T4
Will New York City rent grow above 3% in December 2026?: Above 3%
KXNYCRENTSY-26-T3
Will New York City rent grow above 2% in December 2026?: Above 2%
KXNYCRENTSY-26-T2
Will New York City rent grow above 1% in December 2026?: Above 1%
KXNYCRENTSY-26-T1
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 91% chance that New York City rent will rise more than 5% during 2026, as measured through December. Such a significant increase would represent accelerated growth compared to recent trends. The high probability reflects expectations that demand pressure and limited supply will continue supporting rental increases. Key drivers pushing this outcome include sustained employment growth in the city and persistent housing constraints. The main uncertainty centers on whether macroeconomic conditions—particularly interest rates and recession risk—might dampen demand enough to cool rent growth below the 5% threshold. Resolution will depend on year-end rental data from major tracking services like StreetEasy or CoStar, typically released in early January 2027.
- ›Average NYC rent declined approximately 0.5-2% annually from 2022-2024; a 5%+ increase in 2026 would mark a reversal requiring sustained demand acceleration
- ›Current Manhattan and Brooklyn vacancy rates and average effective rents as of May 2026 compared to historical trends indicate whether the market trajectory supports above-5% year-over-year growth
- ›Federal Reserve interest rate policy and economic growth projections through December 2026 affect both tenant demand and new housing supply responsiveness
- ›Major employment changes in finance, tech, and professional services sectors (NYC's largest industries) directly influence renter purchasing power and demand
- ›Year-end 2026 rental data releases from commercial tracking firms will serve as the definitive resolution source, typically arriving in early January 2027
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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