Will Tie win Best Actress at the Oscars
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
7 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
496 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the Oscars
Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the Oscars?: Inde Navarrette
KXOSCARACTR-27-IND
Cluster 2
Will Anne hathaway win Best Actress at the Oscars
Will Anne hathaway win Best Actress at the Oscars?: Anne hathaway
KXOSCARACTR-27-ANN
Cluster 3
Will Sandra Hüller win Best Actress at the Oscars
Will Sandra Hüller win Best Actress at the Oscars?: Sandra Hüller
KXOSCARACTR-27-SAN
Cluster 4
Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the Oscars
Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the Oscars?: Julianne Moore
KXOSCARACTR-27-JUL
Cluster 5
Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress at the Oscars
Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress at the Oscars?: Cynthia Erivo
KXOSCARACTR-27-CYN
Cluster 6
Will Dakota Johnson win Best Actress at the Oscars
Will Dakota Johnson win Best Actress at the Oscars?: Dakota Johnson
KXOSCARACTR-27-DAK
Cluster 7
Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the Oscars
Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the Oscars?: Renate Reinsve
KXOSCARACTR-27-REN
Analysis
This 12% probability reflects market expectations that Tie will win the Best Actress Oscar award. The current level suggests traders view Tie as an outside contender among the year's acting performances. The probability is likely driven by the strength of Tie's recent work and visibility heading into awards season, though it remains well below leading candidates. Key catalysts include the Golden Globe and BAFTA results, which typically signal momentum in the Oscar race, and the final Oscar nominations announcement, which determines the actual competitive field. Any significant critical or industry recognition would push expectations higher, while competing performances gaining traction could reduce Tie's chances.
- ›Tie's nomination status in major precursor awards (Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG Awards) and their outcomes
- ›The overall strength and number of competing Best Actress contenders in the 2026 race
- ›Critical reception and industry commentary about Tie's performance relative to peers
- ›Historical voting patterns showing how often outside contenders at 12% probability convert to wins
- ›Tie's profile and previous Oscar history, if any, as a predictor of voter behavior
What moved the line
- Aug 19Cynthia Erivo↑3pp1→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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