Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner
Leader sits at 63% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Mark Sutcliffe
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
Jeff Leiper
Spread
43pp
contested
24h volume
$88
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 26, 2026
170 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner
Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner: Jeff Leiper
0xeb67de…8db5
Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner: Alex Lawson
0x7fe990…e507
Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner: Catherine McKenney
0xcd0cf3…f03b
Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner: Mark Sutcliffe
0xc4aaf6…8827
Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner: Neil Saravanamuttoo
0x76f589…9578
Analysis
The current 63% probability indicates that market participants assess one candidate as substantially more likely to win Ottawa's mayoral election than alternatives, though meaningful uncertainty remains. This level typically reflects a combination of polling data, historical performance, endorsement patterns, and candidate visibility. Movement in the probability would depend on campaign developments such as debates, new polling releases, or shifts in voter sentiment tracked through subsequent market activity. The primary resolution driver will be the actual mayoral election outcome, with any scheduled debates or major campaign events in the interim serving as information points that could shift expectations. Market participants are pricing this as a competitive but directional race rather than a toss-up.
- ›The leading candidate holds a 44-point margin over the runner-up (63% vs 19%), suggesting differentiation in market pricing rather than statistical uncertainty alone
- ›Trading volume and contract activity can indicate confidence levels—higher sustained volume would suggest conviction while declining activity may signal growing doubt
- ›Any major polling releases or campaign announcements would provide new information for price discovery, potentially widening or narrowing the current gap
- ›The current distribution across four contracts shows concentration rather than fragmentation, indicating market consensus around one outcome's likelihood relative to others
- ›Actual election date and any preliminary results or vote counts would provide concrete resolution data independent of prior probabilities
What moved the line
- May 8Neil Saravanamuttoo↓26pp33→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Catherine McKenney↑22pp3→25¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Catherine McKenney↓19pp25→6¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.