Panama vs. England
Leader sits at 67% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
England
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
Draw (Panama vs. England)
Spread
44pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
49 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Panama vs. England
Analysis
This probability reflects that England is favored to win an upcoming match against Panama, with a 76% implied probability compared to Panama's lower likelihood. The high confidence in England likely reflects historical performance gaps between the teams, international ranking differences, and recent form. Key drivers include team composition and injuries ahead of match day, recent head-to-head results if available, and tactical adjustments either side might deploy. The match result itself will be the primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty, with the outcome dependent on actual field performance rather than pre-match assessments. Contract pricing across platforms shows some variance, suggesting underlying uncertainty despite England's apparent edge.
- ›England's FIFA ranking and historical performance record against Panama-tier opponents
- ›Recent injury status and squad availability for both teams within 48 hours of match day
- ›Home vs. away venue designation and associated historical win rates for the competing nations
- ›Volume-weighted average pricing across Polymarket and Kalshi contracts ($135+ combined 24h volume) reflects liquidity and confidence level
- ›Discrepancy between platform prices (Polymarket implicit ~57% vs. Kalshi's 65% for England) suggests cross-platform disagreement on true probability
What moved the line
- May 3England↑7pp69→76¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Panama↓5pp24→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Draw (Panama vs. England)↓3pp27→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 6England↓3pp76→73¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.