Peak US National Debt before 2027?
Leader sits at 92% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 42%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$40 trillion
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
42¢
$41 trillion
Spread
50pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$2
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Peak US National Debt before 2027
Analysis
This market assesses the likelihood that U.S. national debt will reach $42 trillion before the end of 2026. The 92% probability reflects near-certainty among traders that this threshold will be breached given current spending trajectories and economic conditions. The primary driver is the U.S. fiscal trajectory: with debt currently in the $35-36 trillion range, reaching $42 trillion requires approximately $6-7 trillion in additional debt accumulation within 18 months—a pace consistent with historical deficits if spending or revenue patterns shift unexpectedly. The outcome depends on three main variables: government spending levels through 2026, tax revenue collections, and any major legislative changes to fiscal policy. The Treasury publishes monthly debt figures, making the resolution deterministic once the debt clock reaches $42 trillion. A significant catalyst would be any major fiscal legislation passed before year-end that either accelerates or constrains spending, though without such changes, existing budget projections point toward this threshold being crossed.
- ›U.S. national debt currently stands near $35-36 trillion, requiring approximately $6-7 trillion in additional accumulation to reach $42 trillion by end-2026
- ›Monthly Treasury debt data is public and updated regularly, making the resolution objective and verifiable rather than subject to interpretation
- ›Federal spending and tax revenue over the next 18 months remain the primary drivers; any significant fiscal legislation or macroeconomic shock could alter the trajectory materially
- ›Current deficit projections by CBO and OMB assume debt reaches this level under baseline scenarios, suggesting high baseline probability absent policy changes
- ›Economic growth, interest rate changes, and employment levels will affect both tax revenues and spending needs through mid-2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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