SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 18 outcomes18 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 min agoCloses Dec 14, 2026 · 219d

Peru Liga 1

Leader sits at 48% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 48%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

48%

Winner: Atlético Grau

runner-up 48¢leader 48¢

Outcomes

18

winner-take-all

Runner-up

48¢

Winner: Cienciano

Spread

0pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

Dec 14, 2026

219 days

Venue

Polymarket

18 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayWinner: Atlético Grau: 48% (12 days, 8 points)Winner: Atlético Grau: 48% on 2026-05-07Winner: Cienciano: 48% (12 days, 10 points)Winner: Cienciano: 48% on 2026-05-07Winner: UTC Cajamarca: 47% (12 days, 10 points)Winner: UTC Cajamarca: 47% on 2026-05-08
Winner: Atlético Grau48¢Winner: Cienciano48¢Winner: UTC Cajamarca47¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 12d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that Alianza Atlético Sullana will win the 2026 Peru Liga 1 championship. The current 48% price reflects a highly fragmented market where multiple teams are priced identically, suggesting either genuine competitive parity among top contenders or insufficient trading volume to establish clear differentiation. The market would shift based on team performance in upcoming matches, injury status of key players, and head-to-head results between the leading candidates. Resolution depends on the completion of the 2026 Liga 1 season, with the champion determined by final standings or playoff outcomes depending on Peru's league format.

  • Five distinct teams are priced at 48% each, indicating the market sees them as essentially equivalent title contenders rather than a single clear favorite
  • Trading volume across all contracts is zero over the past 24 hours, suggesting thin liquidity and potentially unreliable price discovery
  • The identical pricing across multiple teams may reflect a default or initial market setup rather than genuine probabilistic assessment
  • Recent match results and current league standings would be necessary to validate whether these teams actually deserve equal weighting
  • Season timing and format details for Peru Liga 1 2026 would determine when the championship resolves and what events could shift probabilities

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.