Peru Liga 1
Leader sits at 48% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 48%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: Atlético Grau
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
48¢
Winner: Cienciano
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 14, 2026
219 days
Venue
Polymarket
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Peru Liga 1: Winner
Peru Liga 1: Winner: UTC Cajamarca
0x38cafb…23c9
Peru Liga 1: Winner: FC Cajamarca
0x5d7a48…c346
Peru Liga 1: Winner: Juan Pablo II
0xa74124…8818
Peru Liga 1: Winner: Cusco FC
0x5f8237…9a4c
Peru Liga 1: Winner: Cienciano
0xdb2318…3aee
Peru Liga 1: Winner: Sport Boys
0x20e15c…8f19
Peru Liga 1: Winner: Sport Huancayo
0x4d8611…4d94
Peru Liga 1: Winner: Los Chankas
0xecddc2…7504
Peru Liga 1: Winner: FBC Melgar
0x76bf62…4262
Peru Liga 1: Winner: Universitario
0xb53a76…d05b
Peru Liga 1: Winner: Deportivo Moquegua
0xd371dc…7509
Peru Liga 1: Winner: ADT
0x311d53…a6a3
Peru Liga 1: Winner: Atlético Grau
0x6c705a…c74f
Peru Liga 1: Winner: Alianza Atlético Sullana
0x0b308d…a527
Peru Liga 1: Winner: Comerciantes Unidos
0x81c71c…3737
Peru Liga 1: Winner: Sporting Cristal
0x761e93…75ac
Peru Liga 1: Winner: Deportivo Garcilaso
0x615e32…7025
Peru Liga 1: Winner: Alianza Lima
0x746113…a539
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that Alianza Atlético Sullana will win the 2026 Peru Liga 1 championship. The current 48% price reflects a highly fragmented market where multiple teams are priced identically, suggesting either genuine competitive parity among top contenders or insufficient trading volume to establish clear differentiation. The market would shift based on team performance in upcoming matches, injury status of key players, and head-to-head results between the leading candidates. Resolution depends on the completion of the 2026 Liga 1 season, with the champion determined by final standings or playoff outcomes depending on Peru's league format.
- ›Five distinct teams are priced at 48% each, indicating the market sees them as essentially equivalent title contenders rather than a single clear favorite
- ›Trading volume across all contracts is zero over the past 24 hours, suggesting thin liquidity and potentially unreliable price discovery
- ›The identical pricing across multiple teams may reflect a default or initial market setup rather than genuine probabilistic assessment
- ›Recent match results and current league standings would be necessary to validate whether these teams actually deserve equal weighting
- ›Season timing and format details for Peru Liga 1 2026 would determine when the championship resolves and what events could shift probabilities
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.