Will Matthieu Pavon win the 1st round 3-ball matchup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 21, 2026
13 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Wells Williams win the 1st round 3-ball matchup
Analysis
This probability indicates that Matthieu Pavon is expected to win his first-round three-ball matchup at 31%, meaning the market sees him as an underdog against his paired opponents. The current pricing reflects recent form, head-to-head records, and course fit for the specific tournament being played. Pavon's probability could shift based on recent performance in comparable events, any changes to the three-ball grouping, or updated odds-making information from sportsbooks. The resolution date depends on when the first round of the tournament is scheduled to be played, at which point one of the three golfers will advance or the format will determine an outcome. Market participants would adjust this estimate if new evidence about Pavon's current game or course history emerges before play begins.
- ›Pavon's recent tournament finishes and scoring averages relative to his paired opponents
- ›Head-to-head historical performance records between Pavon and the other two golfers in the grouping
- ›Course characteristics and how Pavon's playing style matches the specific layout
- ›Current injury status or playing schedule information for all three golfers
- ›Sportsbook moneyline odds and other market prices for this matchup available elsewhere
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (21% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.