Jake Knapp to compete in PGA Championship in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 45% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$384
11 contracts
Closes
May 24, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Jake Knapp to compete in PGA Championship in 2026
Jake Knapp to compete in PGA Championship in 2026?: Jake Knapp
KXPGAC-26-JKNA
Cluster 2
Max Homa to compete in PGA Championship in 2026
Max Homa to compete in PGA Championship in 2026?: Max Homa
KXPGAC-26-MHOM
Cluster 3
Tony Finau to compete in PGA Championship in 2026
Tony Finau to compete in PGA Championship in 2026?: Tony Finau
KXPGAC-26-TFIN
Cluster 4
Collin Morikawa to compete in PGA Championship in 2026
Collin Morikawa to compete in PGA Championship in 2026?: Collin Morikawa
KXPGAC-26-CMOR
Cluster 5
Sudarshan Yellamaraju to compete in PGA Championship in 2026
Sudarshan Yellamaraju to compete in PGA Championship in 2026?: Sudarshan Yellamaraju
KXPGAC-26-SYEL
Cluster 6
Tom Hoge to compete in PGA Championship in 2026
Tom Hoge to compete in PGA Championship in 2026?: Tom Hoge
KXPGAC-26-THOG
Cluster 7
Webb Simpson to compete in PGA Championship in 2026
Webb Simpson to compete in PGA Championship in 2026?: Webb Simpson
KXPGAC-26-WSIM
Cluster 8
Martin Kaymer to compete in PGA Championship in 2026
Martin Kaymer to compete in PGA Championship in 2026?: Martin Kaymer
KXPGAC-26-MKAY
Cluster 9
Michael Block to compete in PGA Championship in 2026
Michael Block to compete in PGA Championship in 2026?: Michael Block
KXPGAC-26-MBLO
Cluster 10
Mac Meissner to compete in a PGA Championship in 2026
Mac Meissner to compete in a PGA Championship in 2026?: Mac Meissner
KXPGAC-26MAY-MMEI
Cluster 11
Keita Nakajima to compete in a PGA Championship in 2026
Keita Nakajima to compete in a PGA Championship in 2026?: Keita Nakajima
KXPGAC-26MAY-KNAK
Analysis
This market is pricing a 51% chance that professional golfer Jake Knapp will compete in the 2026 PGA Championship, which takes place in May 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether Knapp will qualify through standard PGA Tour eligibility requirements or receive an invitation. Key factors include Knapp's current world ranking, his performance in qualifying events earlier in 2026, and the PGA of America's selection criteria for tournament invitations. The market shows moderate confidence rather than strong conviction either direction, with trading volume of $1,000 in the past 24 hours suggesting interest but not intense activity. The PGA Championship field announcement, typically made several weeks before the tournament, will definitively resolve this question by confirming the complete competitor list.
- ›Jake Knapp's current Official World Golf Ranking relative to automatic qualification thresholds
- ›His performance record in 2026 PGA Tour events preceding the championship deadline
- ›PGA of America's historical patterns for sponsor exemptions and invitation criteria
- ›Whether Knapp has secured playing status through recent tour events or qualifying tournaments
- ›The specific field size and invitation allocation for the 2026 PGA Championship
What moved the line
- May 7Max Homa↓25pp65→40¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Sudarshan Yellamaraju↓18pp77→59¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Tony Finau↑12pp13→25¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Collin Morikawa↑12pp2→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Collin Morikawa↑12pp14→26¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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