All 4 Golf Major Tournaments

30-day trend

Analysis

This 42% probability indicates market participants expect at least one of the four major golf tournaments in 2026 to be won by a player outside the consensus top contenders, or reflects uncertainty about which established favorite will capture multiple majors. The market is pricing significant unpredictability in outcomes across the Masters, U.S. Open, Open Championship, and PGA Championship. The leading contract shows strong interest in Scottie Scheffler winning multiple majors (priced at 9¢), suggesting markets view him as a favorite but not dominant. Resolution depends entirely on actual tournament results from spring through summer 2026, with each major championship serving as a sequential catalyst that narrows uncertainty and eliminates possibilities.

• ›Scottie Scheffler's current form and injury status heading into 2026 season; his dominance in 2024 suggests he remains central to pricing but is not consensus to win all four majors
• ›Competitive depth among top-ranked golfers; whether Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and other established players can convert major opportunities affects who captures titles
• ›Tournament-specific conditions and course suitability; major championships favor different playing styles (Augusta's precision versus links golf), creating legitimate uncertainty about single-winner dominance
• ›Timing of majors relative to player fitness, form cycles, and international travel; back-to-back or clustered tournaments may disadvantage some competitors
• ›No single outcome appears heavily favored; the leader at 42% combined with runner-up at 26% shows market views the field as relatively distributed among multiple scenarios

What moved the line

• May 6Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?: Scottie Scheffler↑4pp26→30¢ · Kalshi
• May 2Will Cameron Young finish top 10?: Cameron Young↑4pp7→11¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds