Will Planet Fitness Inc. report Above 20.8 million total membership in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 92% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 21.2 million
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
Above 21 million
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Jun 6, 2026
28 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Planet Fitness Inc. report Above 2
Will Planet Fitness Inc. report Above 21.6 million total membership in Q1 2026?: Above 21.6 million
KXPLNT-26MAYMEM-21600000.0
Will Planet Fitness Inc. report Above 21.8 million total membership in Q1 2026?: Above 21.8 million
KXPLNT-26MAYMEM-21800000.0
Will Planet Fitness Inc. report Above 22 million total membership in Q1 2026?: Above 22 million
KXPLNT-26MAYMEM-22000000.0
Will Planet Fitness Inc. report Above 21 million total membership in Q1 2026?: Above 21 million
KXPLNT-26MAYMEM-21000000.0
Will Planet Fitness Inc. report Above 21.2 million total membership in Q1 2026?: Above 21.2 million
KXPLNT-26MAYMEM-21200000.0
Will Planet Fitness Inc. report Above 20.8 million total membership in Q1 2026?: Above 20.8 million
KXPLNT-26MAYMEM-20800000.0
Analysis
This represents a 93% probability that Planet Fitness will report total membership above 20.8 million when it releases Q1 2026 results, based on trading activity on Kalshi. The high confidence reflects the company's historical membership trajectory and recent growth patterns, though the exact threshold of 20.8 million creates a narrow band where outcomes can shift. Resolution depends on Planet Fitness's earnings announcement, scheduled for mid-May 2026, which will provide the official membership count. Key drivers include membership retention rates during economic cycles, pricing adjustments implemented in late 2025, and competitive expansion by other fitness chains. The small gap between the leading contract (93%) and runner-up (92%) suggests traders view the outcome as highly likely but not certain, with sensitivity to any guidance changes or membership churn announcements preceding the official report.
- ›Planet Fitness's reported membership trend through late 2024 and early 2025, which would establish the baseline trajectory for Q1 2026
- ›Churn rates and net member additions during Q1 2026, influenced by seasonality and economic conditions
- ›Any interim guidance or pre-earnings commentary the company provided about membership expectations
- ›Competitive pressures from other budget fitness chains and their reported membership growth during the same period
- ›The specific threshold of 20.8 million versus historical growth rates—determining whether this represents a continuation of trends or a material acceleration
What moved the line
- May 7Above 20.8 million↓32pp99→67¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above 21.6 million↓21pp40→19¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Above 20.8 million↑7pp92→99¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above 21.2 million↑5pp89→94¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above 21.8 million↓3pp9→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 h ago.