Portugal vs. Uzbekistan
Leader sits at 78% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Portugal
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Draw (Portugal vs. Uzbekista
Spread
62pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
45 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectation that Portugal will finish ahead of Uzbekistan in their competition. At 75%, the market is pricing Portugal as a clear favorite, though not overwhelming. The current assessment likely reflects Portugal's stronger recent form and higher FIFA ranking compared to Uzbekistan, balanced against Uzbekistan's home advantage or recent competitive results. The main factors supporting the higher probability are Portugal's established strength in international competition, while Uzbekistan's chances depend on their ability to exploit home conditions or exploit defensive vulnerabilities. The probability will shift significantly based on team lineups, injury reports, and any recent performance data emerging before the match. Market liquidity is concentrated in the Portugal contracts, suggesting high confidence in that outcome compared to alternatives.
- ›Portugal holds a 76¢ contract price on Polymarket compared to 12¢ for Uzbekistan in direct matchup markets, indicating consistent directional confidence
- ›Trading volume concentrates almost entirely on Portugal vs. DR Congo ($378 24h), while Uzbekistan contracts show minimal volume, suggesting lower conviction or uncertainty in peripheral matchups
- ›The 75% probability carries a 17% runner-up alternative, indicating the market retains material doubt rather than viewing Portugal as dominant
- ›Runner-up contract at 41¢ (DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan) suggests market uncertainty about Uzbekistan's competitive standing across multiple potential pairings
- ›Minimal trading activity on Uzbekistan contracts ($0 volume) could indicate either strong consensus or insufficient liquidity to attract deeper analysis
What moved the line
- May 8Uzbekistan↓5pp15→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Draw (Portugal vs. Uzbekistan)↑4pp18→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Uzbekistan↑4pp15→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Portugal↑3pp74→77¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Uzbekistan↓3pp19→16¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.