Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in July
Leader sits at 61% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 42%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
No Change
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
42¢
Increase
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 7, 2026
59 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in July
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut interest rates in July 2026. At 53%, the market views a rate cut as slightly more likely than not, but genuine uncertainty remains. The RBNZ's decision hinges primarily on inflation trends and labor market conditions in the months leading up to July. If inflation continues cooling toward the bank's 2% target and unemployment rises, downward pressure on rates increases; conversely, persistent price pressures or wage growth could support rates holding steady. The official RBNZ monetary policy decision in early July will resolve this outcome. Market participants are monitoring May and June inflation data releases and employment reports as key signals of the central bank's likely stance.
- ›New Zealand CPI inflation trajectory from April through June 2026, relative to the RBNZ's 1-3% target band
- ›Labour market weakness or employment growth signals that might justify earlier rate cuts versus sustained demand
- ›Global interest rate environment, particularly Fed policy decisions and commodity price movements affecting NZD
- ›RBNZ forward guidance and communications in May-June statements prior to the July meeting
- ›Wage growth data and inflation expectations from business and household surveys in the lead-up to the decision
What moved the line
- May 6Increase↓22pp53→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 6No Change↑17pp37→54¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Decrease↑11pp7→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Decrease↓7pp18→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Increase↓4pp57→53¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.