Will Gentle Mates win Rocket League Major Paris
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$154
10 contracts
Closes
Jun 8, 2026
30 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will NRG Esports win Rocket League Major Paris
Will NRG Esports win Rocket League Major Paris?: NRG Esports
KXROCKETLEAGUE-PARIS26-NRG
Cluster 2
Will Vitality win Rocket League Major Paris
Will Vitality win Rocket League Major Paris?: Vitality
KXROCKETLEAGUE-PARIS26-VIT
Cluster 3
Will FURIA Esports win Rocket League Major Paris
Will FURIA Esports win Rocket League Major Paris?: FURIA Esports
KXROCKETLEAGUE-PARIS26-FURIA
Cluster 4
Will Karmine Corp win Rocket League Major Paris
Will Karmine Corp win Rocket League Major Paris?: Karmine Corp
KXROCKETLEAGUE-PARIS26-KC
Cluster 5
Will Gentle Mates win Rocket League Major Paris
Will Gentle Mates win Rocket League Major Paris?: Gentle Mates
KXROCKETLEAGUE-PARIS26-M8
Cluster 6
Will Twisted Minds win Rocket League Major Paris
Will Twisted Minds win Rocket League Major Paris?: Twisted Minds
KXROCKETLEAGUE-PARIS26-TWIS
Cluster 7
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win Rocket League Major Paris
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win Rocket League Major Paris?: Ninjas in Pyjamas
KXROCKETLEAGUE-PARIS26-NIP
Cluster 8
Will Man City Esports win Rocket League Major Paris
Will Man City Esports win Rocket League Major Paris?: Man City Esports
KXROCKETLEAGUE-PARIS26-MCI
Cluster 9
Will FUT Esports win Rocket League Major Paris
Will FUT Esports win Rocket League Major Paris?: FUT Esports
KXROCKETLEAGUE-PARIS26-FUT
Cluster 10
Will R8 Esports win Rocket League Major Paris
Will R8 Esports win Rocket League Major Paris?: R8 Esports
KXROCKETLEAGUE-PARIS26-R8
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that Paris Gentle Mates will win the entire Rocket League Major Paris tournament. At 9%, the market views them as an unlikely champion despite showing strength in individual matchups. The low probability reflects uncertainty about their performance against top-tier competition across multiple matches required to win a major tournament. The main driver of this valuation appears to be the relative strength of other competitors like Vitality, combined with the difference between winning single matches (where Gentle Mates shows ~50-85% odds in some contract pairs) versus sustaining that performance through an entire tournament bracket. The tournament results themselves will serve as the primary catalyst, determining whether Gentle Mates advance through their bracket or are eliminated.
- ›Paris Gentle Mates' single-match win probability ranges from 53-85% against certain opponents, but tournament victory requires winning multiple consecutive matches
- ›Boston Breach is priced significantly lower than Gentle Mates in their head-to-head matchup (13¢ vs 85¢), suggesting market confidence in Gentle Mates for that specific contest
- ›Vitality is priced at 16¢ to win the entire tournament, indicating other competitors are viewed as stronger championship contenders
- ›The 9% market probability for Gentle Mates to win the major suggests aggregate expectations of competitive elimination before the finals
- ›Trading volume varies significantly across contracts (highest at $1165 for Breach vs Mates, lowest at $103 for Vitality), indicating different confidence levels in various matchup assessments
What moved the line
- May 6Twisted Minds↑6pp2→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 6NRG Esports↑4pp8→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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