10 bound contracts on Polymarket show the leader at 49%, runner-up at 48% (Winner: Universitatea Craiova) across 10 winner-take-all outcomes. The headline is the leader's price, not an arithmetic mean.

Winner: Universitatea Craiova leads at 49%, runner-up at 48% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes. Updated 3 min ago.

Winner-take-all · 10 outcomes10 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 min agoCloses Jun 7, 2026 · 29d

Romania SuperLiga

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 49% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 48%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

49%

Winner: Universitatea Craiova

0¢runner-up 48¢leader 49¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

48¢

Winner: Rapid București

Spread

1pp

contested

24h volume

thin orderbook

Closes

Jun 7, 2026

29 days

Venue

Polymarket

10 bound

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

Winner: Universitatea Craiova49¢Winner: Rapid București43¢Winner: Dinamo47¢

Top 3 candidates by current price · 11d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Romania SuperLiga: Winner

10 contracts$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Romania SuperLiga: Winner: Rapid București

0x09919c…a265

48¢−4pp$0P→

Romania SuperLiga: Winner: Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc

0x28725e…1ecb

46¢+2pp$0P→

Romania SuperLiga: Winner: Farul Constanța

0xfe38f9…6923

47¢+9pp$0P→

Romania SuperLiga: Winner: FCSB

0x9d9237…f41e

45¢+1pp$0P→

Romania SuperLiga: Winner: Argeș Pitești

0xb35dc0…2ec6

48¢±0$0P→

Romania SuperLiga: Winner: Universitatea Cluj

0x09892e…7a32

48¢+23pp$0P→

Romania SuperLiga: Winner: Universitatea Craiova

0x89b837…d2c6

49¢−29pp$0P→

Romania SuperLiga: Winner: Petrolul

0x63e3d4…a174

46¢+1pp$0P→

Romania SuperLiga: Winner: CFR Cluj

0x6f3214…12dc

48¢+6pp$0P→

Romania SuperLiga: Winner: Dinamo

0x5c6bb0…d3ec

48¢+9pp$0P→

Analysis

This probability reflects market estimates that Dinamo will win the 2026 Romania SuperLiga championship, currently priced at 48% on Polymarket. The market shows a tightly clustered outcome, with four teams (Dinamo, FCSB, Botoșani, and Oțelul Galați) each valued between 42-48%, indicating uncertainty about who will secure the title. Trading volume remains modest at $100 per contract over 24 hours, suggesting limited liquidity and potential for price shifts as the season progresses. The championship outcome depends on regular-season performance, head-to-head results, and playoff mechanics if applicable. Resolution will occur at the end of the 2025-26 SuperLiga season, with the title awarded to the team with the best final record or playoff winner depending on league rules.

›Dinamo and the runner-up are identically priced at 48%, indicating near-parity in perceived strength rather than a clear favorite
›Four different teams occupy the 42-48% probability range, suggesting the market views multiple outcomes as similarly likely
›Low 24-hour trading volume ($100 per contract) implies limited market depth and potential for repricing based on injury news, transfers, or match results
›Current season standings and recent form in the SuperLiga would directly impact whether these probabilities shift toward or away from the current leader
›The championship resolution depends on final league table or playoff structure, with timing typically occurring in late May or June depending on the season schedule

What moved the line

May 6Winner: Universitatea Craiova↑29pp49→78¢ · Polymarket
May 7Winner: Universitatea Craiova↓29pp78→49¢ · Polymarket
May 6Winner: Universitatea Cluj↑23pp20→43¢ · Polymarket
May 2Winner: Universitatea Craiova↓20pp68→48¢ · Polymarket
May 6Winner: Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc↑16pp21→37¢ · Polymarket

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.

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