What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council
Leader sits at 80% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 57%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Russia
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
57¢
NATO / Ally
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jun 12, 2026
15 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council
What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: Event does not qualify
KXUNMENTION-26MAY28-NQE
What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: Iran / Iranian
KXUNMENTION-26MAY28-IRAN
What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: Nuclear
KXUNMENTION-26MAY28-NUCL
What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: Trump
KXUNMENTION-26MAY28-TRUM
What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: Russia
KXUNMENTION-26MAY28-RUSS
What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: Hormuz
KXUNMENTION-26MAY28-HORM
What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: Drone
KXUNMENTION-26MAY28-DRON
What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: China / Chinese
KXUNMENTION-26MAY28-CHIN
What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: Putin
KXUNMENTION-26MAY28-PUTI
What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: Ceasefire
KXUNMENTION-26MAY28-CEAS
What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: Marco / Rubio
KXUNMENTION-26MAY28-MARC
What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: NATO / Ally
KXUNMENTION-26MAY28-NATO
What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: Kyiv / Kiev
KXUNMENTION-26MAY28-KYIV
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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