Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by...
Leader sits at 97% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
June 30
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
95¢
December 31
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$130K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that Russia and Ukraine will hold a diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026. The 67% price reflects expectations that negotiations are more likely than not over the next seven months, though significant uncertainty remains. The likelihood is driven by diplomatic pressure from international actors and potential battlefield dynamics that may incentivize talks, offset by mutual distrust and unresolved core disagreements over territorial control and security guarantees. The most immediate test is whether any formal negotiations commence before the summer; sustained military advances by either side or statements from key mediators like the US or European leaders could shift probabilities meaningfully in either direction.
- ›Current active conflict intensity and territorial momentum, which affects both sides' willingness to negotiate from their perceived position
- ›Statements and diplomatic activity from the US, EU, and other major powers that could pressure or enable negotiation channels
- ›The June 30 contract (14%) suggests minimal expectation of talks within one month, creating a narrow window for imminent diplomatic movement
- ›Historical precedent: the conflict has seen multiple unsuccessful diplomatic attempts despite international involvement, establishing a baseline for skepticism
- ›Whether either Russia or Ukraine experiences significant military setbacks or resource constraints that would make negotiation more strategically rational
What moved the line
- Jun 7June 30↑53pp35→88¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6June 30↑20pp15→35¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 7December 31↑17pp75→92¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6December 31↑5pp70→75¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4June 30↑4pp9→13¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents
The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
Russia Captures Ukrainian Town: War Odds Flip
The probability of Russia capturing all of Hryshyne by May 31 jumped 59¢ to 83¢, signaling a major battlefield gain. This has knock-on effects for Ukraine peace deal markets and oil supply concerns from potential disruptions in the Black Sea.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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