Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents
The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
Key takeaways
- 01
The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%.
- 02
This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process.
- 03
Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
Full analysis
Ukraine conflict prediction markets showed notable divergence today, as the probability of a ceasefire before year-end dropped while the prospects for a more comprehensive peace deal held steady. The 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31' contract (ticker: 0x5c19f205507ce03ff5) fell 4 cents to 47 cents on volume of 179,975. This decline, paired with a slight uptick in the 'Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027' contract (ticker: 0x4167e22670f31e5f93) to 29 cents (+1), suggests the market is pushing out expectations for a temporary halt in fighting while maintaining a path toward a broader settlement. The 'Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30' contract (ticker: 0x9772347ce628f4427a) held at 4 cents, indicating low expectations for a concession on that front. On the battlefield, Russia's advance is being tracked closely. The 'Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31' contract (ticker: 0x7eab0f28d4a52193b8) rose to 64 cents (+2), and the 'Will Russia capture all of Sofiivka by December 31' contract (ticker: 0xb467b3d5e8b5b0c6a) fell 6 cents to 53 cents, suggesting mixed signals on territorial gains. The 'Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30' contract (ticker: 0xa57a027158ce73973c) dropped 2 cents to 4 cents, reinforcing the view that no immediate breakthrough is expected. The lack of a significant move in the 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31' contract (ticker: 0x6bd56627aa21311850) at 9 cents (-1) and the 'Starmer out by December 31' contract (ticker: 0xbee2cd40473495f713) holding at 74 cents (-3) show that leadership changes are not being priced in as a catalyst for peace.
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