Will Artemis SailGP Team win the 2026 Bermuda Sail Grand Prix
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$100
11 contracts
Closes
Aug 8, 2026
91 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 27% of their title tokens — “Will Bonds Flying Roos win the 2026” vs “Will Artemis SailGP Team win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Bonds Flying Roos win the 2026
Cluster 2
Will Artemis SailGP Team win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix
Will Artemis SailGP Team win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix?: Artemis SailGP Team
KXSAILGPRACE-26NY-ART
Cluster 3
Will Emirates GBR win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix
Will Emirates GBR win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix?: Emirates GBR
KXSAILGPRACE-26NY-GBR
Cluster 4
Will France SailGP Team win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix
Will France SailGP Team win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix?: France SailGP Team
KXSAILGPRACE-26NY-FRA
Cluster 5
Will Germany SailGP Team win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix
Will Germany SailGP Team win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix?: Germany SailGP Team
KXSAILGPRACE-26NY-GER
Cluster 6
Will Los Gallos win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix
Will Los Gallos win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix?: Los Gallos
KXSAILGPRACE-26NY-ESP
Cluster 7
Will NorthStar Canada win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix
Will NorthStar Canada win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix?: NorthStar Canada
KXSAILGPRACE-26NY-CAN
Cluster 8
Will Red Bull Italy win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix
Will Red Bull Italy win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix?: Red Bull Italy
KXSAILGPRACE-26NY-ITA
Cluster 9
Will Rockwool Racing win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix
Will Rockwool Racing win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix?: Rockwool Racing
KXSAILGPRACE-26NY-DEN
Cluster 10
Will United States SailGP Team win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix
Will United States SailGP Team win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix?: United States SailGP Team
KXSAILGPRACE-26NY-USA
Analysis
This 12% probability represents the current market assessment of Artemis SailGP Team's chances of winning the 2026 Bermuda Sail Grand Prix. The low probability suggests that competing teams, particularly Bonds Flying Roos (23%) and Emirates GBR (16%), are viewed as stronger contenders. Artemis's relatively low odds reflect either historical performance gaps, roster composition, or recent season results compared to rivals. The main catalyst for this probability will be the actual race event in Bermuda, where live performance data and conditions will determine the outcome. Factors that could shift expectations include team roster announcements, performance in preliminary races leading up to Bermuda, crew changes, boat modifications, and weather conditions during the event. Current trading volume of zero across all contracts suggests limited market activity, indicating this is primarily a reference probability rather than an actively arbitraged position.
- ›Artemis's current 12% odds trail all other named top contenders, with Bonds Flying Roos at 23% being the market favorite
- ›Team composition, recent season standings, and historical performance at Bermuda courses likely inform the probability differential
- ›Race conditions in Bermuda, including wind patterns and water state on event day, will materially affect all teams' performance
- ›Preliminary race results or team announcements between now and the event could shift market expectations
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all five contracts indicates limited current market liquidity and suggests this may reflect structural market odds rather than active price discovery
What moved the line
- May 7Bonds Flying Roos↑20pp2→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Emirates GBR↑17pp2→19¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Bonds Flying Roos↓15pp22→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Emirates GBR↓10pp19→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 8United States SailGP Team↑7pp2→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.