Scotland vs. Brazil
Leader sits at 72% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Brazil
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
18¢
Draw (Scotland vs. Brazil)
Spread
54pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$40
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 24, 2026
46 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Scotland vs. Brazil
Analysis
This 72% probability reflects market expectations that Scotland will win in a matchup against Brazil. The probability suggests Brazil is viewed as a strong favorite, though the market also prices in meaningful uncertainty—Scotland retains roughly a one-in-four chance according to this assessment. Market prices across multiple venues show variance, with Brazil priced at 48¢ on one exchange and Scotland at just 14¢ on another, indicating either different contract structures or pricing inefficiency. The outcome will depend on team form, recent performance metrics, and head-to-head dynamics at the time of competition. Resolution will occur when the match concludes and the winner is officially determined.
- ›Brazil's current FIFA ranking and recent competitive record versus Scotland's form going into the fixture
- ›Venue location and any home-field advantage factors that affect match conditions
- ›Player availability and injury status for both squads in the days leading up to kickoff
- ›Variance in probability across different prediction markets (Kalshi vs. Polymarket) suggests either contract specification differences or temporary pricing discrepancies
- ›Historical head-to-head record and performance trends in similar competitive environments
What moved the line
- May 8Scotland↑5pp14→19¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.