Senegal vs. Iraq
Leader sits at 50% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Senegal
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
Draw (Senegal vs. Iraq)
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 26, 2026
48 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Senegal vs. Iraq
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment that Senegal is favored over Iraq in a direct matchup, with a 59% implied probability versus 33% for Iraq and 8% for other outcomes. The pricing reflects Senegal's higher FIFA ranking and recent competitive record, while Iraq's lower valuation suggests concerns about consistency at this competitive level. Market depth remains thin across related contracts, with the France vs. Senegal contract showing the most trading activity ($169 in 24-hour volume), indicating broader uncertainty about this tournament structure. The most significant driver of repricing would be team roster announcements, recent injury updates, or head-to-head performance data closer to the match date. Until then, the 26-percentage-point spread between Senegal and Iraq reflects a clear but not overwhelming market consensus.
- ›Senegal's FIFA ranking and recent tournament performance history versus Iraq's comparative record
- ›Market volume concentration in France vs. Senegal contract ($169 24h vol) versus near-zero volume in the direct Senegal vs. Iraq contract
- ›Thin liquidity across all related contracts suggests limited conviction among sophisticated traders
- ›Roster availability and injury status for both teams, which typically influences odds in the final weeks before competition
- ›Tournament format details and seeding that may affect match scheduling or competitive context
What moved the line
- May 6Senegal↓7pp60→53¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Senegal↑4pp56→60¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Iraq↑3pp31→34¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.