Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?
Leader sits at 88% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$60
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
$65
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$802
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Silver (SI) above ___ end of June
Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $90
0xfc1c23…5a94
Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $85
0x35f8bb…4c8f
Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $75
0x7c7e93…61ed
Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $100
0xf5c3bf…1488
Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $70
0x915a3b…1669
Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $65
0x32c4b4…78a8
Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $60
0x34d867…a758
Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $80
0x1bd119…6b76
Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $95
0x4dffcb…ae39
Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $110
0x7c6a52…da2e
Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $120
0xe381e4…0556
Analysis
This contract predicts silver will close above $100 per ounce at the end of June 2026, with the leading market participant pricing this outcome at 81% probability. Silver prices are influenced by macroeconomic conditions, real interest rates, and industrial demand, alongside safe-haven flows during periods of market uncertainty. The June expiration date means resolution depends on spot silver prices in roughly four weeks, making current economic data and Federal Reserve signals key determinants. A significant move in US Treasury yields, inflation expectations, or major industrial demand shifts could shift probabilities materially. The contract's high confidence level reflects market belief that silver is unlikely to fall below $100, though the 19% tail probability suggests meaningful downside risk is still priced in by some participants.
- ›Current spot silver price relative to $100 strike and historical volatility patterns over the past 30 days
- ›US real interest rates and 10-year Treasury yields, which typically move inversely to precious metals valuations
- ›Industrial demand indicators and manufacturing PMI data releases, particularly from China and the eurozone
- ›Safe-haven demand signals derived from equity market volatility indices and geopolitical risk events
- ›Volume concentration: the leading contract holds 81% while runner-up is at 75%, indicating moderate consensus rather than unanimous agreement
What moved the line
- May 7$70↑9pp70→79¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$80↑9pp39→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$70↑8pp62→70¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$120↓7pp13→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 7$85↑6pp33→39¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.