Spain vs. Cabo Verde
Leader sits at 86% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Spain
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Draw (Spain vs. Cabo Verde)
Spread
78pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$240
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 15, 2026
37 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Spain vs. Cabo Verde
Analysis
Markets are pricing Spain as a heavy favorite to defeat Cabo Verde with 90% implied probability, with some contracts suggesting slightly lower odds around 87%. This reflects Spain's stronger playing history, ranking advantage, and general footballing capacity compared to Cabo Verde. The primary drivers of this probability are team strength differentials and recent form. The main factor that could shift this would be injury status of key Spain players or unexpected Cabo Verde tactical adjustments, though the baseline expectation remains a Spain win. The match itself—the scheduled competition date—serves as the key catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty and determine whether the market-implied probability aligns with the actual outcome.
- ›Spain is ranked significantly higher in FIFA rankings and has a superior historical record against Cabo Verde
- ›Polymarket and Kalshi show slight disagreement (90¢ vs. 87¢), suggesting some residual uncertainty despite the heavy favorite pricing
- ›Implied probability of a Cabo Verde win ranges from 3–10% depending on the contract, indicating low but non-negligible tail risk
- ›24-hour trading volume is highest on the Spain-favored Polymarket contract ($96), suggesting this is the most actively priced version
- ›Related markets show Spain as favored in other matchups (87¢ vs. Saudi Arabia), reinforcing broader market confidence in Spanish performance
What moved the line
- May 7Spain↓3pp92→89¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.