When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Spotify will release its 2026 Wrapped feature by December 5, 2026. Historically, Spotify releases Wrapped in early November, making a December release date plausible but somewhat later than the typical pattern. The current 82% assessment suggests traders view a December release as likely but not certain, possibly reflecting uncertainty about whether Spotify might shift its timing or consolidate with other year-end features. The main resolution driver is Spotify's actual announcement date for 2026 Wrapped, which typically occurs in late October or early November. Factors that could shift this probability include changes to Spotify's product roadmap, integration with new features, or delays in data processing pipelines.

• ›Spotify's historical Wrapped release pattern: consistently deployed in early-to-mid November for the past five years
• ›Current market price reflects December 5 specifically; earlier November releases would favor alternative contracts and lower this probability
• ›Seven separate outcome contracts exist, suggesting material disagreement among traders about which specific date is most likely
• ›Trading volume and contract spreads ($623–$1,055 in 24h volume) indicate active but modest participation, suggesting moderate confidence rather than consensus
• ›The runner-up contract at 79% represents a competing date hypothesis; the 3-point gap suggests relatively tight uncertainty about exact release timing

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds