Switzerland vs. Canada
Leader sits at 40% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 39%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Switzerland
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
39¢
Canada
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$2
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 24, 2026
46 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Switzerland vs. Canada
Analysis
This 41% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Switzerland has roughly two-to-five odds against Canada in their matchup. The market shows relatively thin liquidity with minimal volume on direct Switzerland-Canada contracts, suggesting limited trading activity and potentially wider uncertainty around the outcome. Key drivers of this probability include each team's recent performance metrics, head-to-head historical records, and current squad composition. The matchup itself will resolve uncertainty when the game is played, with the result determining whether the 41% probability was an accurate reflection of the competitive balance. Related markets show Qatar trading at 10 cents in one Switzerland matchup, indicating broader tournament or competition dynamics may influence how traders value Switzerland's chances overall.
- ›Direct Switzerland-Canada contract shows 37 cents for a draw outcome, indicating meaningful probability assigned to non-decisive results
- ›Thin volume on Switzerland-Canada contracts ($0 recorded volume) suggests limited market conviction and potential pricing inefficiency
- ›Related markets value Switzerland at 75 cents against Qatar but only 10 cents when Qatar faces Switzerland, revealing inconsistent or outdated pricing signals
- ›The 41% leading position versus 41% runner-up indicates extremely close competitive assessment with minimal statistical separation between top outcomes
- ›Market structure spans multiple contracts with varying liquidity, making the aggregated 41% dependent on which contract is considered most representative
What moved the line
- May 2Draw (Switzerland vs. Canada)↓4pp38→34¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.